Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
Asia Summit 2015 - Asias Future: Perspectives on Prospects and Challenges
Milken InstituteWing, Kirk Wager, Mike Milken, Cesar, Purisima, Kevin Sneader, Jing Ulrich, Tim Cofer, Achal Agarwal, Sam Fisher, Chris Wei
- ASEAN's middle-class population is projected to rise from 525 million to 3.2 billion by 2030, with the region expected to house two-thirds of the global middle class that year.
- Cumulative U.S. investment in the top five ASEAN markets reached $220 billion, exceeding the investment of the next three countries combined.
- Indonesia plans a record $22 billion allocation for infrastructure this year, alongside a target of $500 million in investment for the current year and $1 billion for the following year.
- The Indonesian government intends to increase its tax ratio from 11.9 percent to approximately 17 percent within five years and aims to harmonize regulations within the coming months to facilitate investment.
- Indonesia forecasts GDP growth from a current level near $1 trillion and expects haze conditions to improve significantly next year following stricter policies and violator blacklisting.
- Indonesia faces the risk of hardline radicalism if 1 percent of its 230 million Muslim population converts, and requires education reforms to prevent its demographic bonus from becoming a problem if the youth population is not educated.
- Indonesia plans to allocate 20 percent of its national budget to education, focusing on technology outside of Java, and aims to be ready for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) alongside implementing the ASEAN Economic Community in December.
- The Philippines has maintained a current account surplus for 13 years, with Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) revenues projected to surpass remittances by next year.
- Tourism in the Philippines is expected to become the third pillar of its current account story, following a doubling of arrivals since President Aquino's tenure, though the country estimates a 30-year recovery timeline to its desired economic position.
- The Philippines plans to implement a K plus 12 educational system aligned with the German apprenticeship model to support its integration into an ASEAN hub for Asia trade.
- India's economic growth is projected at 7.8 percent for 2015, outpacing China, while the Philippines and Indonesia are identified as having among the youngest median ages globally.
- China's urbanization rate is forecast to increase by one percentage point annually, potentially reaching 85 percent over the next 30 to 35 years, amidst a projected shift in the global working adult to retiree ratio from 6:1 to 2:1 by 2030.
- Mobile penetration in Asia is projected to exceed 100 phones per 100 people next year, contributing to a forecast of 10 trillion U.S. dollars in regional retail sales.
- Asia is expected to account for one-third of global private consumption within the next five years, driven by a region-wide economic growth rate of 5.9 percent.
- Corporate investment in the region includes over $1 billion deployed by Mondelez in the last 18 months, including new facilities in India and China, and the acquisition of Vietnamese snacking company Kindle Foods completed in July.
- E-commerce adoption is surging, with 90 percent of diapers sold online in Korea and 30 percent in China, while 85 percent of Kimberly-Clark's international e-commerce sales originate in the Asia-Pacific region.
- Local Asian competitors are noted to be faster and less bureaucratic than Western multinationals, posing a risk for firms that fail to adapt quickly to the market.
- Over 120 million Chinese people are predicted to travel overseas for shopping this year, rising to 160 million in two years, ten times the peak number of Japanese travelers.
- Consumer behavior is shifting toward experiences such as travel, dining, and movies, prompting real estate developers to transform shopping malls with entertainment spaces and driving high demand for hotels.
- Digital transformation in Asia is advanced compared to the U.S., with e-commerce removing traditional entry barriers and millennials leading future digital communication and trading.
- Developed markets are growing at 1.7 percent and non-Asian emerging markets at 0.3 percent, whereas Asia remains the highest contributor to global growth despite near-term challenges.
- The demographic shift in Asia involves a young population in Indonesia and the Philippines, contrasting with China's expected population decline and sub-Saharan Africa's population growth.
- Diageo plans to incorporate volatility into medium-to-long-term strategies to navigate short-term fluctuations, while Aviva saw Asia's contribution to new value creation rise from 6 percent to 14 percent in two years.