Avoiding War With North Korea

Panel Overview and Context

• The session, moderated by Nicholas Kristof at the Milken Conference, featured experts Jean Lee, Yasuhide Nakayama, John Park, and Governor Bill Richardson.
• The panel analyzed the "terrain has changed" on the Korean Peninsula following the Panmunjom Declaration and the recent inter-Korean summit.
• Participants noted a shift from traditional six-party talks to a "21st-century Yalta" dynamic involving direct U.S.-North Korea engagement, with South Korea and Japan playing secondary but crucial roles.

Assessments of Denuclearization

• John Park identified a new, accelerated "action-for-action" mechanism, noting North Korea's offer to dismantle the Punggye-ri nuclear test facility for international inspection.
• Park compared the dismantling of the cooling tower to the 2008 disabling of the Yongbyon cooling tower, viewing it as a tangible symbol of momentum rather than immediate total denuclearization.
• Jean Lee expressed skepticism that Kim Jong-un will resolve the nuclear issue immediately, predicting he will likely use the program as a long-term bargaining chip to secure regime survival.
• Bill Richardson estimated a 20% chance of full, verifiable denuclearization by 2021, contingent on proper international inspections which he noted have historically been a failure point.
• Jean Lee estimated a probability of less than 5% for full denuclearization by 2021, citing the regime's reliance on nuclear weapons for internal legitimacy.
• John Park emphasized that "denuclearization" definitions remain contested, with the U.S. seeking total dismantlement while North Korea likely seeks a freeze on existing capabilities.

North Korean Strategy and Regime Stability

• Jean Lee described North Korea as a "modern-day monarchy" where Kim Jong-un must maintain the loyalty of the elite class to prevent coups, noting recent high-level defections as a potential sign of internal discontent.
• Lee highlighted that Kim Jong-un's leadership strategy involves using external threats (the U.S.) to unify the population against a backdrop of chronic poverty and a per capita GDP under $18,000.
• Richardson argued Kim Jong-un is a "rational actor" aiming to replicate the post-WWII Japanese emperor model, seeking to become a symbol of a sovereign state rather than a pariah, while retaining the military for leverage.
• Jean Lee countered that while Kim may desire private sector integration (e.g., McDonald's) to boost the economy, the regime remains opaque, and predicting its collapse is historically unreliable.
• Yasuhide Nakayama noted that Kim Jong-un fears becoming a "Libya" but is modeling his future vision on the Japanese imperial system to secure international acceptance while retaining sovereignty.

Geopolitical Dynamics and Leverage

• Yasuhide Nakayama expressed anxiety that Japan is being marginalized in the process, fearing a deal might exclude medium-range missiles targeting Tokyo or the abduction of Japanese citizens.
• Nakayama outlined three specific Japanese concerns: the murder of U.S. soldier Otto Warmbier (and his own family's loss), the 17 kidnapped Japanese citizens, and the nuclear/missile threat.
• John Park argued that while sanctions (acting like "antibiotics") have created diplomatic room for South Korea's engagement strategy, their efficacy is limited by North Korean adaptation and smuggling through China and Russia.
• Bill Richardson warned of a strategic gap between the U.S. (demanding denuclearization before sanctions relief) and South Korea (proposing a step-by-step approach involving infrastructure and trade benefits).
• Governor Richardson suggested that the South Korean "Marshall Plan" proposal could reduce U.S. leverage if North Korea secures economic concessions before denuclearization steps are verified.
• Nakayama indicated that while Russia has expressed interest in the talks, China remains the dominant player, though the U.S. and Japan must coordinate to prevent a shift in the regional balance of power.

Future Outlook and Specific Obstacles

• Jean Lee noted that North Korea is currently "racing" to complete stages of denuclearization, with President Moon inviting the UN to certify the test site dismantlement.
• Richardson urged the U.S. to address non-proliferation issues beyond denuclearization, including the cessation of chemical weapon exports to Syria and missile technology transfers.
• Nakayama stated that a direct meeting between Prime Minister Abe and Kim Jong-un is not currently on the agenda but remains a possibility for the future.
• John Park cautioned that the "game plan" is being formulated by small cliques in Seoul, Pyongyang, and the White House, bypassing traditional diplomatic channels like the State Department and Foreign Ministries.
• The panel concluded that while "hopeful skepticism" is warranted, the timeline for significant progress extends beyond the 2021 U.S. presidential term, with a high likelihood of "frozen" or limited agreements rather than total disarmament.