Conference Presentation, Panel
Avoiding War With North Korea
- Resolution of the North Korea issue is anticipated within the next 60 minutes, though complete denuclearization is considered extremely unlikely within the next few years.
- The diplomatic process is expected to follow an accelerated "action for action" timetable, beginning with a freeze or disablement of facilities within days, rather than immediate total dismantlement.
- Leadership expectations include President Moon Jae-in leading engagement policies, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un holding a summit soon, and a subsequent summit between Trump and Moon.
- Kim Jong-un is predicted to utilize the nuclear program as a bargaining chip to secure a peace treaty and sanctions relief, potentially modeling his future role on the symbolic status of the Japanese emperor.
- Negotiations are expected to favor informal settings over formal ones, with North Korea employing tactics described as "bobbing and weaving" to bridge gaps between U.S. demands for total dismantlement and North Korean preferences for a freeze.
- A comprehensive framework, potentially involving a "Marshall Plan" with infrastructure and economic development from South Korea, is viewed as a necessary condition for future disarmament, though a full deal is considered "very remote" in the near term.
- Japan is expected to await U.S.-North Korea developments before taking independent action, while a broader "Yalta-style" conference involving all six parties is proposed to establish a new East Asian power balance.
- Financial settlements similar to 1960s agreements between Japan and South Korea may be sought by North Korea as part of the peace process.
- The North Korean regime is expected to remain stable for the foreseeable future, bolstered by national pride and war propaganda, despite growing elite discontent and high-level defections.
- Economic challenges and desires for private sector activity and foreign investment, such as McDonald's, are anticipated to influence Kim Jong-un's strategies, distinguishing his governance from his father's.
- Probability estimates for full denuclearization by the Milken Conference in 2021 vary, with one expert citing a 5% chance, another citing less than 5%, and a third suggesting a 20% chance contingent on proper inspections.
- Significant policy gaps remain between the U.S. and South Korea regarding the "nuclear umbrella," which must be addressed prior to a successful summit.