Big wins against factory farming & how they happened | Lewis Bollard (2021)

Overview of Progress (2017–2021)

• Market Growth for Plant-Based Meat: US retail sales of plant-based meat have grown at an average rate of 16–18% annually since 2017, a significant acceleration from the 1–2% annual growth observed prior to that period.
• Corporate Adoption: Major meat and food corporations, including Tyson, JBS, Hormel, Nestlé, and Unilever, have entered the alternative protein space.
• Fast Food Integration: Burger King successfully globalized its "Impossible Whopper," and other chains like KFC and Starbucks have launched plant-based options in China, driven by state planning commissions welcoming such investments.
• Corporate Campaign Wins: Advocacy groups have secured over 1,200 new farm animal welfare policies since 2017, with a primary focus on eliminating battery cages.
• European Policy Shifts: The European Commission has committed to issuing new farm animal welfare directives, and nations like France and Germany have pledged to end practices such as castration without anesthesia for piglets.

Plant-Based Meat and Cellular Agriculture

• Market Share Disparity: Plant-based meat currently accounts for less than 1% of total meat volume purchases in the US, though it represents approximately 15% of US dairy sales by volume.
• Price Competitiveness Gap: In the US retail market, fresh plant-based meat averages $10/lb and frozen at $7/lb, compared to beef at $5/lb and chicken at $2.30/lb; alternatives remain 2–4 times more expensive than conventional meat.
• Production Cost Reduction: Beyond Meat's cost of goods sold dropped from approximately $4.50/lb to $3.50/lb between 2019 and 2020, while Impossible Foods reduced the cost of its final product by roughly one-third over 18 months.
• Chicken Price Parity Challenge: While some products now match the price of ground beef, no commercial alternative protein matches the low cost of commodity chicken, which is the primary target for price competition.
• R&D Investment Levels: Beyond Meat has disclosed over $100 million spent on R&D (likely under $200 million total), while Impossible Foods has likely invested upwards of $200 million in product development.
• Manufacturing Constraints: Early reliance on co-manufacturers caused supply shortages; companies like Beyond and Impossible are now investing in proprietary production facilities to prioritize their specific needs.
• Cellular Agriculture Milestones: Singapore became the first nation to approve the sale of cultured meat to the public, and companies like Memphis Meats have raised over $100 million in funding.
• Government Funding Initiatives: Canada has committed over $160 million to plant protein optimization; Singapore and Israel have each invested over $10 million annually; the EU has funded over $50 million through Horizon 2020.

Corporate Campaigns and Implementation

• Cage-Free Penetration: Approximately 28% of the US laying hen flock is now cage-free, up from 6% in 2015, representing over 70 million newly freed hens.
• Costco Case Study: Costco eliminated cages from its US supply chain ahead of competitors, reaching over 95% cage-free status despite a 2015 campaign that failed to secure a public timeline commitment.
• Implementation Risks: Some major US retailers have lagged in implementing cage-free pledges, with some holding out for 2025/2026 deadlines without interim milestones, risking "pledge fatigue" among advocates.
• Broiler Chicken Resistance: In the US, major broiler producers (Tyson, Sanderson Farms, Pilgrim's Pride) have resisted welfare improvements due to market concentration, unlike the fragmented egg industry which allowed for easier supplier switching.
• European Success: In Europe, the egg sector is shifting toward cage-free systems, with the majority of hens now housed cage-free in some regions, facilitating easier implementation for retailers.

Social Science and Consumer Behavior

• Documentary Efficacy: Surveys suggest 10–40% of current vegetarians cite documentaries as a key factor in their decision, with Blackfish cited as a direct catalyst for ending SeaWorld's orca program.
• Marketing Strategy: Success in the plant-based sector relies on high-budget R&D and celebrity/athlete endorsements (e.g., Beyond Meat) or chef collaborations (e.g., Impossible Foods) rather than just low-cost content production.
• Short-Term Interventions: Studies on dining halls indicate that lectures and leafleting can reduce meat consumption by roughly 15% in the short term, but effects often fade within a few months.
• Long-Term Impact Data: Replication studies by the Animal Welfare Action Lab failed to find significant long-term effects on vegetarian intentions after video or text interventions.
• Survey Anomalies: While 54% of Americans claim a desire to reduce meat consumption, this aspiration has not translated into a measurable increase in the number of lifelong vegetarians over the last two decades.
• Substitution Effects: Some interventions intended to reduce meat consumption have resulted in consumers substituting beef for chicken rather than reducing overall meat intake, inadvertently increasing total animal suffering.

Global Developments and Challenges

• India Litigation: A national moratorium on new battery cages has been established in India, but existing cages remain legal due to prolonged litigation strategies by the egg industry.
• Scale of Indian Market: India possesses the second-largest laying hen population globally (approx. 400 million), making progress there critical for global impact.
• Latin America Progress: Brazil's three largest retailers have committed to cage-free supply chains, and Brazilian pork producers are ahead of US counterparts in phasing out gestation crates.
• China's Strategic Interest: The Chinese government is investing in plant-based proteins due to food security concerns following the African swine fever pandemic and supply shocks.
• Israel's Dual Approach: Israel combines high veganism rates with progressive animal welfare laws, driven by government support for food self-sustainability and startup ecosystems.

Strategic Lessons and Future Outlook

• Professionalization Imperative: The movement is shifting from volunteer-driven to professionalized operations, requiring better salaries, independent boards, and management expertise to sustain long-term campaigns.
• Value of Moral Suasion: While technology is a primary driver, moral suasion remains critical to prevent future technologies from being used to harm sentient beings in new contexts (e.g., wild animal welfare or future AI).
• Funding Imbalance: The for-profit alternative protein sector has attracted over $2 billion in investment, whereas the non-profit sector receives less than $25 million annually, creating a talent and resource gap for advocacy.
• Broiler Welfare Trade-offs: Research indicates a clear negative correlation between growth rates and welfare outcomes in broiler chickens, debunking earlier hopes that faster-growing breeds could reduce suffering.
• Legislative Momentum: Brexit and the corporate shift toward cage-free systems have lowered the political barrier for passing animal welfare legislation in the UK and EU.
• Open Philanthropy's Grant Strategy: Open Philanthropy has dispersed approximately $130 million since 2015, focusing on high-impact areas like the Good Food Institute, the Humane League's Open Wing Alliance, and media grants to increase mainstream coverage.

Career and Actionable Advice

• Research Needs: There is a critical shortage of scientists and researchers specializing in alternative proteins and the synthesis of existing welfare data for decision-making.
• Government Roles: Careers in government science administration, regulatory bodies (e.g., USDA, FAO), and grant-making offer high-leverage opportunities to influence sector standards.
• Diversified Approach: Open Philanthropy and the Effective Altruism community advocate for hedging bets across technology, moral suasion, and policy to address the scale of the problem.
• Donor Guidance: Donors are advised to diversify contributions among specific high-performing groups, ACE standout charities, and funds like the EA Animal Welfare Fund to maximize impact.
• Job Opportunities: Open Philanthropy is hiring program associates to manage a portfolio of over 100 grants, with roles open to candidates globally regardless of location or seniority.