Interview
Big wins against factory farming & how they happened | Lewis Bollard (2021)
- The plant-based meat market is projected to continue rapid global growth, with US sales increasing from 1-2% to 16-18% annually since 2017, and potential market share in fast food and food service reaching 15% to match plant-based dairy trajectories, though total volume remains below 1% in most markets with uncertain displacement timing.
- Future R&D investment in alternative proteins is expected to rise significantly, potentially reaching $1 billion annually driven by clean energy-style capital, alongside expected cost reductions such as the $1 per pound drop reported by Beyond Meat between 2019 and 2020, despite persistent challenges in achieving price parity with commodity chicken.
- Regulatory and legislative actions are anticipated to expand globally, including new EU farm animal welfare directives, the start of California's caged egg sales ban, a potential Swiss factory farming ban on a ballot following a 25-year phase-out, increased US Department of Agriculture enforcement under the Biden administration, and ongoing litigation in India that may be delayed for years or decades.
- Corporate strategies are expected to evolve with fast-food chains doubling plant-based offerings to retain flexitarians and continued expansion of cage-free commitments, while the movement faces resistance from concentrated US broiler producers like Tyson and Sanderson Farms who can refuse higher-welfare requests.
- Cellular agriculture is expected to see continued production scaling, using Singapore's regulatory approval as a model for other regions, while the global fish and crustacean welfare movement aims for milestones such as EU legislation and new standards from major producers like CP Foods.
- Public perception and advocacy efforts face specific constraints, including limited effectiveness of documentaries due to distribution challenges on major platforms, fading short-term effects of moral suasion and leafleting, and a stagnant vegetarian population count that highlights a gap between the aspiration to reduce meat consumption and actual action.
- The sector is expected to see a divergence in funding and focus, with for-profit alternative protein ventures attracting over $1 billion in recent private investment compared to less than $25 million annually for the non-profit sector, while academic and non-profit research remains critical for early-stage work requiring philanthropic support.
- Long-term success is predicted to depend on professionalizing the movement through higher salaries and management expertise to prevent burnout, combining the scaling of existing interventions with exploration of neglected areas, and prioritizing the shaping of societal values alongside technological breakthroughs to ensure lasting impact.