Blake Scholl: How 50 People Built a Supersonic Jet

Predictions and Expectations:

• The speaker expects supersonic passenger travel to return, citing the upcoming executive order making the practice legal in the U.S.
• It is predicted that a bill to permanently legalize supersonic flight will pass the Senate Commerce Committee, following its unanimous passage in the House.
• The speaker believes that the technology for supersonic flight existed long before Boom was founded and that the industry can be competitive with China if it invents the next wave of manufacturing.
• The speaker is confident that the cost of software development will continue to drop due to AI, allowing more businesses to build custom software that fits their operations perfectly.
• The speaker expects that "physical world AI" will eventually emerge to make programming CNC machines and industrial automation less manual, though it does not exist yet.
• The speaker predicts that the need for software engineers will increase in a post-AI world because the lower cost of development allows more people to become coders, requiring more architecture oversight.
• The speaker believes that experience is not a barrier for young engineers in hardware, contrary to the "lies told by old people," and that young builders have an edge in software.
• The speaker expects that AI will allow "anybody who is a user to become a tool builder," democratizing the creation of custom engineering tools.
• The speaker expects that the new "superpower" ground power turbines will ship to their first customer in less than 12 months.
• The speaker believes that "deep tech" companies can survive long development runways if they iterate at the product level with simpler, easier prototypes rather than taking on extremely challenging ones immediately.

Timelines and Milestones:

• The speaker expects the "superpower" turbine to ship to the first customer in less than 12 months.
• The speaker notes that an executive order making supersonic flight legal in the U.S. was issued 115 days after XB-1 broke the sound barrier.
• The speaker expects the first production engine parts to be made in "just a couple weeks" following the installation of machines in the new factory.
• The speaker states that the transition from a digital design to a prototype engine part in their R&D shop now takes about 24 hours.
• The speaker recalls that the approval process for the XB1 permit from the FAA took 90 minutes from the moment they indicated readiness.
• The speaker mentions that XB-1 became the first independently developed jet to break the sound barrier more than a decade after the company was founded in 2014.
• The speaker notes that the 787 airliner was launched more than 20 years ago and that it flies no faster than the Boeing 707.

Technology and Product Direction:

• The company plans to move from the XB-1 test airplane to the Overture supersonic passenger airliner, scaling up manufacturing capabilities.
• Boom is building a "super factory" to vertically integrate the production of engines and airplanes at scale, having moved into a lease just six months prior.
• The company has developed a system called "Make Boom" to define an airplane in a configuration file, allowing for whole-aircraft simulations in minutes to determine product-market fit.
• The company is using a tool called "Blade Runner" to allow engineers to change blade designs in real time to observe structural and aerodynamic behavior, replacing processes that previously took months.
• Boom has chosen to build its own machine shop to go from a digitally designed part to a prototype in about 24 hours, avoiding reliance on outside aerospace suppliers.
• The company is vertically integrating its own test assets, building its own engine stand to test components without reserving time in external test cells.
• Boom is adapting its supersonic engine technology for ground power generation under the "superpower" brand to generate capital and reliability data.
• The company plans to eliminate the tool-and-die industry by using an all-digital manufacturing process that requires absolutely no tooling for parts like turbine blades.

Market and Industry Outlook:

• The speaker expects that if supersonic speed is doubled, the Atlantic could be crossed in three and a half hours, making Sydney as accessible as Honolulu is today.
• The speaker believes that doubling the speed of air travel would fundamentally change industries, citing the historical impact of jetliners on tourism (Hawaii), fashion (Nike), and music (The Beatles).
• The speaker expects that the U.S. can compete with China on manufacturing by inventing the next generation of manufacturing processes rather than repatriating existing ones.
• The speaker anticipates that the "tool and die" industry in the U.S. has largely died due to China hoovering up talent, creating a gap that digital manufacturing can fill.
• The speaker expects that the regulatory landscape for supersonic flight will shift from being a barrier to a supportive framework, as demonstrated by the recent executive order.
• The speaker believes that the industry will see an explosion of AI companies, similar to the past explosion of photo-sharing apps, driven by the reduction in software development costs.
• The speaker expects that the "why now" justification for a startup should not be based on technology availability but on the founder's decision to start the work.

Company Plans:

• Boom plans to build its own engine stand and machine shop to accelerate iteration in the physical world, a capability the speaker claims does not exist at competitors like GE, Rolls-Royce, or Boeing.
• The company plans to scale from the 50-person XB-1 team to a much larger operation for the Overture airliner, utilizing a vertically integrated model.
• Boom intends to continue building in public, leveraging live streams and social media to inspire future engineers and maintain a supportive community.
• The company plans to hire early-career talent and those with "side projects" that demonstrate extraordinary capability, even without traditional work experience.
• The company plans to prioritize "work-life harmony" and build a team of people who "care" deeply about the mission, rather than just those with technical skills.
• The company plans to leave the San Francisco ecosystem to build in Denver to achieve affordable, scalable physical manufacturing, though the speaker acknowledges the benefits of the Bay Area's ecosystem for other types of work.
• The company plans to engage regulators early in the development process to make them part of the team, contrasting this with the "build first" approach of companies like Uber.

Financial Guidance:

• The speaker acknowledges that building a supersonic airliner requires billions of dollars in R&D capital and that predicting the exact cost or timeline is impossible.
• The company uses the "superpower" ground power turbine as a revenue stream to generate the capital needed to fund the larger airliner development.

Risks and Caveats:

• The speaker notes that Boom nearly failed several times, including a point where the company had only seven days of cash left.
• The speaker cautions that iterating in the world of atoms with outside aerospace suppliers is extremely difficult, necessitating vertical integration.
• The speaker warns against the belief that every technology must be created at the earliest possible moment, a fallacy that can stifle innovation.
• The speaker cautions that building a company you do not love is a recipe for misery and can trap a founder in a role they do not want to be in.
• The speaker notes that "deep tech" hardware development historically takes a long time to reach a proof of concept, often longer than expected.
• The speaker warns that "software is dead" is a wrong and confused notion, but cautions that young builders must avoid becoming "experts" steeped only in the past.
• The speaker notes that the "tool and die" industry in the U.S. has been hollowed out, making it very hard to find tool and die engineers in America.

Confidence and Disagreement:

• The speaker is "incredibly promising" about the future of supersonic travel, stating that "supersonic flight isn't red or blue. It's red, white, and blue."
• The speaker strongly disagrees with the advice to "work on what you know," arguing that "knowledge is changeable, passion is not."
• The speaker rejects the premise that "experience wins" in hardware, calling the idea that young engineers need "ages and ages of experience" a "lie told by old people at big, dumb companies."
• The speaker expresses deep respect for Jeff Bezos's ability to combine long-range vision with short-term operational discipline, contrasting this with companies that massage earnings for quarterly results.
• The speaker believes that "AI doomerism" is "deeply wrong and confused," arguing that the need for software engineers will actually increase as software development becomes cheaper.
• The speaker states that "software engineering is dead" is a notion they "just don't buy."
• The speaker believes that self-belief is not innate on day one but is cultivated by picking a hard mission and giving it everything.