Brazil elections: the enduring threat of Bolsonaro

Election Performance & Context

• Jair Bolsonaro significantly outperformed pre-election polls in Brazil's first presidential voting round, defying expectations for his defeat.
• The election took place on Brazil's Independence Day, marking a focal point for his supporters to demonstrate loyalty.
• Despite a divisive four-year presidency characterized by rainforest destruction, social division, and a "disastrous" COVID-19 response, Bolsonaro maintains a "cult-like" following among his base.

Electoral Base & Demographics

• Three core constituencies form the bedrock of Bolsonaro's support: gun owners, evangelical Christians, and agribusiness farmers.
• Evangelical voters, who comprise nearly one-third of the population, supported Bolsonaro at a rate of approximately 70% in the previous election.
• Bolsonaro has successfully bridged religious divides by positioning himself as a "pan-Christian" protector of family values, despite being Catholic.
• His base was mobilized by portraying left-wing opponent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as a corrupt communist linked to the "devil."

Congressional Alliance & Legislative Power

• Bolsonaro's coalition controls 50% of the lower house and holds 13 of 27 Senate seats contested in 2022.
• If Bolsonaro wins, his congressional allies would likely facilitate the relaxation of environmental regulations and gun restrictions.
• If Lula wins, he would face a "staunch opposition" from conservative parties, forcing him to negotiate with ideologically flexible center-right factions to govern.
• The "Bullet Caucus" in Congress, comprised largely of former security force members, advocates for flexible gun possession laws and aligns closely with the administration.

Policy Shifts: Environment & Gun Control

• Private gun ownership in Brazil doubled to nearly two million during Bolsonaro's presidency due to relaxed import and ownership laws.
• Deforestation rates in the Amazon spiked under his tenure, pushing the rainforest closer to a potential ecological tipping point.
• Critics argue that deregulation has favored predatory agribusiness producers while negatively impacting indigenous populations in protected areas.
• Supporters claim the administration balances environmental concerns with the need to support impoverished and starving citizens.

Institutional Erosion & Trust

• Bolsonaro has systematically delegitimized institutions that oppose him, labeling the media as "fake news" peddlers and courts as biased.
• Despite underestimating his poll numbers, Bolsonaro has used this discrepancy to further cast doubt on the integrity of polling, the Supreme Court, and voting machines.
• The President has positioned himself as the sole representative of the "authentic will of the people," framing any institutional obstacle as an enemy of the nation.

Future Outlook & Risk Assessment

• Bolsonaro has strongly hinted that he will not accept election results if he loses, mirroring tactics used by former U.S. President Donald Trump.
• Analysts fear that a disputed loss could lead to violence similar to the January 6 U.S. Capitol riot, particularly among his well-armed supporters.
• There is uncertainty regarding the response of the military police, many of whom hold personal and political ties to Bolsonaro.
• Even in the event of a Lula victory, the "Bolsonarismo" movement is expected to persist as a powerful political force, potentially threatening long-term stability in Brazil.