Statement
Brazil elections: the enduring threat of Bolsonaro
- The Bolsonaro movement is expected to persist regardless of whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or Jair Bolsonaro wins the runoff election, with Lula facing significant governance challenges from conservative opposition and a need to negotiate with ideologically flexible center-right parties in Congress.
- A potential Bolsonaro victory is projected to facilitate the loosening of environmental regulations and gun restrictions, driven by a large coalition of gun owners who prioritize self-defense against urban and rural violence while advocating for flexible but rigorous weapon possession criteria.
- Environmental risks include a potential tipping point where deforestation rates could transform the rainforest into dry grassland.
- Political stability faces severe risks if Bolsonaro loses, including his refusal to accept the result, the emboldening of efforts to erode Brazilian institutions, and the possibility of violence comparable to the Capitol riot, compounded by uncertainty regarding the loyalty of military police officers who support him.
- Polls that underestimate Bolsonaro's support may fuel rhetoric discrediting both the polls and the Supreme Court, while conservative evangelical voters are expected to remain united on the preservation of life regarding abortion.
- If Lula assumes office on January 1st without incident, the movement remains viable, potentially continuing under Bolsonaro's leadership as a group contesting his legitimacy, creating a realistic scenario for his return to power in the future.