Interview, Press Conference, Other
Can Brazil Survive Bolsonaro?
- Brazil is projected to face a "really complicated and tense couple of years" characterized by deep recession and political scrutiny, with the future of democratic institutions viewed as the "greatest challenge" yet to come.
- Unemployment is forecast to reach an 18-year high and the number of people living on the breadline is expected to have "more than doubled" following the cessation of government emergency aid, leaving the poverty rate "higher than it has been for over a decade."
- Evangelical Protestantism is predicted to become the largest religion in the country in just over ten years, potentially shifting support away from Bolsonaro as this demographic questions his leadership.
- Environmental consequences are described as "catastrophic" and "irreparable" regarding deforestation, a legacy attributed to administration signals and the failure to implement further economic reforms after the initial pension reform.
- Bolsonaro is expected to become "progressively more isolated" as he opposes democratic institutions, while the military may face a choice between him and democracy, and Congress may inflict political damage via investigations into his handling of the pandemic.
- The 2022 election is anticipated to be a "political showdown" between Lula and Bolsonaro, with significant risks that events similar to the US Capitol attack could be "repeated in Brazil" if Bolsonaro loses, although the capacity of institutions to take control remains uncertain.
- Historically, the country was poised to host the World Cup and Olympics and was touted as a future economic powerhouse, with GDP having grown by 7.5% in 2010, though the current outlook suggests a "tragic" legacy requiring recovery that could attract global attention.