Interview
Can the US-Iran ceasefire hold? | The Economist
- Two months after the initial US-Iran ceasefire took effect, the agreement faced its most severe violation as Iran launched multiple waves of ballistic missiles against Israel on Sunday night local time.
- Iran cited Israeli airstrikes in Beirut, Lebanon, as the justification for the missile barrage, maintaining its stance that the ceasefire must encompass an end to hostilities in Lebanon.
- Israel reported intercepting the Iranian missiles with no significant ground damage, though sirens later activated in Israel's northern and central regions on Monday morning.
- In retaliation, Israel conducted airstrikes within Iranian territory targeting missile sites, a petrochemical plant, and other facilities.
- Simultaneously, the Iranian-backed Houthi militia in Yemen launched a separate attack on Israel.
- The conflict escalation stems from a dispute over whether the April ceasefire applies to Lebanon; Iran refused to abide by the deal unless Donald Trump restrained Israeli operations there.
- President Trump eventually ordered Israel to limit the geographic scope and intensity of its airstrikes in Lebanon but did not mandate a complete halt.
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected linking the Lebanon and Iran theaters, insisting the conflicts remain separate while expanding Israeli ground and air operations in Lebanon.
- Israeli pressure intensified due to Hezbollah's use of fiber-optic drones, which Israel lacks reliable defenses against, resulting in Israeli military casualties and civilian attacks.
- The Israeli strike on an Iranian petrochemical plant mirrors a March incident that previously triggered Iranian attacks on a Qatari gas liquefaction facility and a Saudi oil refinery.
- There is rising concern in Gulf states that Iran may repeat the pattern of targeting economically significant infrastructure, though a direct attack on Gulf nations carries the risk of drawing the US directly into the conflict.
- Publicly, Donald Trump expressed severe displeasure with the Israeli strikes, stating via a Financial Times journalist in the middle of the night that "Netanyahu has to accept whatever deal I impose" and "He doesn't call the shots."
- Reports suggest Trump told Israeli officials the situation must stop, though analysis indicates private communications likely provided a "green light" for limited retaliation while warning against massive escalation.
- The US administration is currently attempting to restrain Israel behind the scenes without carrying out direct strikes on Iran.
- Iran's missile launch represents a controlled escalation compared to past larger salvos, signaling an intent to preserve an "off ramp" rather than resume full-scale war.
- The future of the US-Iran ceasefire now depends on the Trump administration's decision to either enforce a halt on further Israeli attacks or risk a total collapse of the agreement and resumption of regional warfare.