Interview
Can the US-Iran ceasefire hold? | The Economist
- Further Iranian attacks on Israel are probable if airstrikes in Lebanon continue, with a possibility of Iran widening the conflict horizontally to target Gulf states again.
- An Iranian attack on Gulf states risks drawing the United States directly into the war and causing the total collapse of the ceasefire.
- The current U.S.-Iran ceasefire is described as more fragile than at any point in the previous two months, though both nations desire a durable agreement.
- The Trump administration faces a decision to halt attacks or risk war resumption, with a higher likelihood of public warnings to Netanyahu rather than a private "green light" for specific retaliatory parameters.
- The risk of attacks on Gulf states persists unless further Israeli actions are restrained, as conflict containment becomes increasingly difficult the longer the current fire exchange continues.
- The probability of preserving the ceasefire increases if the current exchange of fire causes no significant damage.