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Choose this podcast: abortion and the election
The EconomistCharlotte Howard, Sacha Nauta, Idrees Kahloon, Mary Ziegler, Stevie Hertz, Daniella Raz, Sasha Nada, Idris Kalloun, Deanna Fellows, Lisa Dan, Lauren Brunzel
- Donald Trump was found guilty of falsifying business records in the "Hush Money" trial in New York; he has promised to appeal, marking the first time a felon is a major party's presumptive nominee, with this verdict likely being the only trial concluded before the November election.
- The primary focus of this election cycle is the issue of abortion rights, which has become a central determinant for voter turnout and persuasion, particularly following the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson decision that returned abortion regulation to the states.
- Sixteen states will have direct ballot initiatives or referendums on abortion this November, with Florida, Arizona, and Nevada receiving significant attention due to their status as either key swing states or states with large populations and restrictive surrounding laws.
- In Florida, a grassroots campaign led by 10,000 volunteers successfully gathered over one million signatures to place a constitutional amendment on the ballot that would enshrine abortion rights up to fetal viability (approximately 24 weeks).
- Florida's abortion amendment requires a 60% supermajority to pass, a higher threshold than previous successful referendums in states like Michigan (57% in favor) and Ohio, though the campaign notes that 35% of petition signers in Florida were Republicans or independents.
- Pro-choice groups in Florida expect to spend $68 million on the ballot initiative campaign, a figure comparable to the spending on a competitive Senate seat in Nevada, whereas the opposition is expected to have significantly fewer financial resources.
- Since the Dobbs ruling, total abortion numbers in the United States have actually increased, contrary to the intent of anti-abortion advocates, due to a divergence where restrictive states implemented bans while liberal states enacted new protections.
- Approximately one in three women of reproductive age in the U.S. now lives in a state with a total or near-total abortion ban, a consequence of "trigger laws" enacted immediately following the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
- Democrats are betting on abortion rights to drive turnout and persuasion, spending five times more on abortion-related ads than Republicans since the midterms, with the Democratic share of such ad spending rising to over 33% compared to just 5% for Republicans.
- Polling data indicates that only about 7% of voters consider abortion their single most important issue, though the demographic of these voters is disproportionately young, female, and suburban, with 37% of Michigan youth voting in the 2022 referendum compared to a 23% national average.
- Political strategists note that while Dobbs energized Democratic turnout in 2022, the impact may be diluted in a general election due to higher baseline turnout and the fact that many pro-choice voters might have voted in the general election regardless of the ballot measures.
- Republicans are largely attempting to distance themselves from the strict state-level bans enacted post-Dobbs, with figures like Donald Trump avoiding taking direct responsibility for the restrictions, while pragmatic Republicans like Arizona's Carrie Lake have opposed hardline bans in favor of policies like child allowances.
- Legal experts warn that a potential Trump administration could utilize the 1873 Comstock Act—a historic obscenity law—to implement a de facto federal ban on abortion by restricting the mailing of abortion-related items, bypassing the need for congressional approval.
- The Supreme Court is expected to rule in the coming weeks on two critical cases: the legality of Mifepristone (a key medication for abortion) and the application of the federal EMTALA statute regarding emergency care for pregnant women in states with total bans.
- Legal historians and Supreme Court justices are increasingly discussing the concept of "fetal personhood," a legal theory that could extend rights to fetuses and embryos, potentially threatening IVF practices and certain forms of contraception in the future.
- A fracture is emerging between the pro-life movement and elected Republican politicians, as the movement increasingly pursues non-electoral strategies (litigation, conservative legislatures) that may alienate Republicans who must face re-election and public backlash.
- Historian Mary Ziegler notes that while a Biden re-election is unlikely to immediately restore Roe v. Wade via Congress due to filibuster rules, it could lead to a repeal of the Comstock Act or the appointment of justices who might eventually overturn Dobbs.
- If Democrats gain control of the Senate, they may attempt to break the filibuster to pass an abortion rights bill, as it is viewed as their most unifying policy issue capable of overcoming the 60-vote supermajority requirement.
- The transcript concludes with a historical trivia segment noting that measures like the "Arizona Voter Reward Act" (2006) and a "Denver UFO Commission" (2010) both failed by large margins, while a 1998 California ban on horse meat for human consumption passed.