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Choose this podcast: abortion and the election
The EconomistCharlotte Howard, Sacha Nauta, Idrees Kahloon, Mary Ziegler, Stevie Hertz, Daniella Raz, Sasha Nada, Idris Kalloun, Deanna Fellows, Lisa Dan, Lauren Brunzel
- The 2024 presidential election is projected to be the primary test of the Supreme Court's decision to return abortion control to state voters, with the issue anticipated to have a more significant impact on the outcome than a potential criminal verdict against a presumptive nominee, though only one trial is likely to conclude before November.
- Democrats intend to leverage abortion rights as a central campaign strategy, allocating over 33 cents of every advertising dollar to abortion issues to boost turnout among women, young voters, and suburban residents, with hopes that enshrining rights via referenda in swing states will replicate the 2022 "Dobbs voter" surge seen in Michigan and similar to the 2004 gay marriage referenda.
- In Florida, abortion rights campaigns expect to spend $68 million by year's end to reach a required 60% threshold for passage, with messaging focused on patients and doctors, while opposition groups with significantly fewer resources plan to argue the amendment is too vague or extreme.
- Polling indicates that only about seven percent of respondents consider abortion their most important issue, yet this group is disproportionately female and suburban, with two-thirds voting for Joe Biden in 2020; however, the issue's salience may diminish as the immediate aftermath of the Supreme Court ruling passes, potentially limiting its effect compared to midterm elections.
- If President Biden is reelected, the restoration of Roe v. Wade is considered highly unlikely in the near term, whereas a Trump administration might utilize the Comstock Act to create a federal backdoor ban on abortion, contingent on Supreme Court cooperation.
- Two major Supreme Court cases regarding mifepristone and EMTALA are expected to be resolved within the next few weeks, with outcomes that could reignite the issue's salience or severely restrict access in banned states if ruled against patients and doctors.
- Future legal and political dynamics may involve increased focus on fetal personhood and the potential for Democrats to break the Senate filibuster if they regain control, while the pro-life movement may face internal tension with Republicans over the long term as they pursue strategies that bypass popular politics.