Colour visions: a German-election lookahead

Germany's Federal Election

• The upcoming federal election is dominated by a fragmented proportional representation system where parties require 5% of the national vote to enter the Bundestag.
• Recent televised debates featuring top leaders (Friedrich Merz, Olaf Scholz, Robert Habeck, and Alice Weidel) are unlikely to significantly shift polling data.
• The critical factor determining the election outcome is the performance of three smaller parties hovering near the 5% threshold:
  • The Free Democrats (pro-business).
  • Die Linke (hard left), which surged from 3–4% to ~6% in the last few weeks.
  • The BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht), a new party focused on opposing German support for the war in Ukraine.
• Current polling places the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 20–21%, triggering a political "firewall" that prevents them from joining any coalition.
• Chancellor candidates and parties have united in revulsion against US Vice President J.D. Vance's comments supporting the AfD, viewing his remarks as an attack on democratic principles.
• A specific political shift occurred after CDU leader Friedrich Merz allied with the AfD to pass anti-migration resolutions, a move that alienated moderate voters and boosted Die Linke's numbers.
• Friedrich Merz is favored to win the election and likely become Chancellor; however, the coalition landscape remains fluid.
• Possible coalition outcomes for the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) include:
  • A two-party "Grand Coalition" with the Social Democrats (SPD), considered the most probable scenario if the AfD is excluded.
  • A three-party "Kenya Coalition" comprising the CDU, SPD, and the Greens.
  • A three-party "Jamaica Coalition" (CDU, Greens, Free Democrats) or "Germany Coalition" (CDU, Free Democrats, Greens) if specific smaller parties clear the 5% threshold.
• If four parties enter parliament, a two-party coalition is feasible; if seven enter, a three-party coalition becomes almost certain, complicating governance and decision-making.

Japan's "Me Too" Moment

• Japan is experiencing a rising wave of public outrage regarding sexual assault, particularly within the entertainment industry, despite lagging behind global movements like South Korea's.
• A pivotal recent incident involved TV presenter Nakai Masahiro admitting to an out-of-court settlement with a female newsreader regarding assault, leading to his resignation and a boycott by over 70 sponsors against broadcaster Fuji TV.
• The backlash has forced the resignation of two Fuji TV executives, though the newly appointed CEO remains an older male, highlighting slow institutional change.
• Legal reforms implemented in 2023 include raising the age of consent from 13 to 16 and expanding the definition of rape to include non-consensual acts not involving physical force.
• Cultural barriers persist, with only 5–10% of rape victims in Japan reporting to police compared to ~25% in the US.
• Persistent cultural issues include the trivialization of female news presenters as "joshiana" (girl announcers) and the prevalence of youth-focused beauty contest recruitment.
• The documentary Black Box Diaries by journalist Itoshi Ori, which details her 2017 rape accusation and civil victory, has garnered international acclaim, including an Oscar nomination, yet remains unreleased in Japan.
• Public sentiment is shifting, with eroding tolerance for powerful men abusing their positions, even as institutional leadership changes slowly.

Decline of London Pie and Mash Shops

• Traditional pie and mash shops, a staple of Cockney culture since Victorian times, are disappearing from London high streets due to demographic shifts and economic pressures.
• In the mid-19th century, there were approximately 300 such shops; today, the remaining few face closure due to high rents and the migration of the traditional working-class demographic to Essex and Kent.
• While shops like Goddards in Greenwich (est. 1890) remain popular, many closures are driven by retiring owners lacking family successors rather than a lack of customer demand.
• Customer bases have changed, with some loyalists traveling from neighboring counties to secure food, while younger generations show less familiarity with traditional offerings like jellied eels.
• To adapt to modern tastes, surviving shops have diversified menus to include vegan (e.g., Tuscan bean), gluten-free, chicken, and steak pies alongside traditional beef.
• The menu typically consists of a meat pie, potato mash, and jellied eels, often accompanied by "liquor" (a parsley-based sauce) and vinegar.
• The decline is attributed to the inability to match the standardized offerings of fast-food chains and the changing demographics of the East End.