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Colour visions: a German-election lookahead
- Japan's "Me Too" movement is predicted to gain momentum with rising public outrage and continued scrutiny of high-profile figures, though elite cultural attitudes and institutional leadership changes are expected to evolve slowly over an extended period.
- Legal reforms enacted in 2023, including raising the age of consent and expanding the definition of rape, are viewed as overdue yet significant, occurring amidst a cultural environment where only 5–10% of rape victims report to police compared to 25% in the US.
- Specific outcomes expected include Moeka Iida winning damages in a civil lawsuit following her dismissed criminal case, and the documentary Black Box Diaries securing multiple international awards and an Oscar nomination despite lacking a domestic release date.
- Persistent cultural issues include the expected continuation of trivializing women on screen by 2025 and the gradual erosion of society's tolerance for powerful men abusing their authority.
- London's traditional pie and mash shops, once numbering 300 in the mid-19th century, face continued decline due to demographic shifts into Essex and Kent and ownership succession issues, such as the imminent closure of Manzi's.
- Despite broader industry trends, some businesses like Goddards anticipate steady performance contingent on adapting to modern tastes through offerings such as vegan, gluten-free, and chicken pies.
- Germany's electoral outcome is projected to heavily depend on whether the Free Democrats, Die Linke, and BSW clear the 5% threshold, with Die Linke given a 19-in-20 probability of entering parliament.
- The election is considered almost certain to be won by the Christian Democrats, leading to Friedrich Merz becoming chancellor, though negotiations are anticipated to be difficult and lengthy.
- Political coalition scenarios are predicted as most likely to be a "grand coalition" between the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats, or alternatively a "Kenya coalition" involving the Social Democrats and Greens, with a three-party configuration generally viewed as undesirable.
- Alternative coalition possibilities include a "circle Jamaica coalition" with the Free Democrats or a "Germany coalition" excluding the Greens, both deemed less likely.
- Factors influencing the political landscape include the correlation between Friedrich Merz's anti-migration vote strategy and Die Linke's surge, while J.D. Vance's comments are expected to have no material impact on polls but may unite candidates through shared disapproval.