Panel
Confronting Terrorism at Home and Abroad
Milken InstituteEric Schmitt, Brian Fishman, Nicholas Rasmussen, Linda Robinson, Terry Wolff, Nick Rasmussen, William Brangham, Amit Sharma
- The counterterrorism landscape is projected to feature a unique array of threats emanating from numerous locations involving more individual extremists than at any time since 9/11, with the threat condition expected to linger and lag beyond the reclamation of physical territory.
- While ISIS dominates headlines, al-Qaeda is predicted to remain a top-tier counterterrorism concern for the United States every day, and inspired attackers are forecast to remain the largest threat category alongside lethal directed fighters and returnees utilizing secure physical platforms for plotting.
- Military operations are expected to continue for quite a while, with West Mosul anticipated to be liberated by Ramadan, followed by sequenced operations in Tal Afar, Qawija, and the Euphrates River Valley, though these timelines may be longer than anticipated.
- The current administration is expected to exhibit a bias for action empowering cabinet heads to act energetically within their authorities, potentially reducing interagency reliance while maintaining operational continuity, and is currently reviewing a request for 3,000 to 5,000 troops primarily for counterterrorism and training roles.
- Stabilization efforts are described as critically insufficient under a formal six-month scope; advocates argue that failing to conduct sufficient follow-on activities will lead to the regeneration of the movement as ISIS 4.0 and that billions of dollars are not needed, but adequate investment is required to avoid losing.
- Governance challenges in northeast and eastern Syria are identified as a "tough nut to crack" without institutions, with projections suggesting governance will start with a "raucous civilian council" involving tribal sheikhs, and Iraq's transition and reconstruction are expected to involve loans and a series of political twists.
- Risks include the potential for Turkey to engage in a "hot war" if Kurdish presence is not geopolitically managed, the existence of major sanctuaries in Iraq and Syria for training even without a declared caliphate, and the persistence of a "latent organization" conducting assassinations and bombings underground.
- Financial and recruitment dynamics indicate that 50 cents of every Daesh dollar comes from extortion and 30 cents from oil or gas sales, while the loss of territory may discredit the group for "joiners" who seek a winner, the group retains ideological appeals for other recruits.
- Future scenarios suggest that a "come to Jesus moment" is needed for American society regarding the enduring danger, with the possibility that law enforcement agencies in Iraq and Syria may treat the threat as a legal problem rather than a war problem within five to ten years.
- Coalition efforts are evolving with the 67th member, Interpol, joining to facilitate information sharing, while nations like Morocco, Jordan, and Malaysia are establishing their own messaging centers, and $4.9 billion in aid has been allocated for Iraq with more expected.