Sep 21, 2025, 12:00 PM ETConference Presentation, Panel

Critical Minerals, Critical Risks: Securing Supply Chains | Global Conference 2025

Global demand for critical minerals is driven by three converging megatrends: energy transition, energy security, and digitalization.
Copper demand is projected to grow 70% by 2050; new applications in AI and data centers alone require 3 million tons of copper.
The automotive industry's shift to electrification has created a surge in demand for rare earths, platinum group metals (PGMs), magnesium, and titanium.
Critical minerals are now defined as the "commanding heights" of the modern economy, serving as inputs for AI, electrification, mobility solutions, and defense systems.

There is a projected gap of 10 million tons of incremental copper supply needed over the next decade.
Discovery rates have stagnated as the top 200 meters of the Earth's crust have been mined, forcing operations deeper into lower-grade deposits.
Developing a new major mine in the United States takes an average of 29 years due to complex permitting and regulatory processes.
Argentina recently announced the largest greenfield copper resource discovered in 30 years, highlighting the need for improved permitting to unlock value.
Meeting 2050 energy transition goals may require copper production to double by the mid-2030s, representing a $250 billion investment gap.

China controls 97.2% of global rare earth metal output and 52 of the world's copper smelters, compared to only two in the U.S.
In 2010, China restricted rare earth exports following a maritime fishing dispute, causing prices to spike 350% and serving as a wake-up call for supply chain resilience.
Recent actions include China's export controls on critical minerals and the invocation of "dual-use" designations to restrict materials used in defense systems.
The U.S. administration issued an Executive Order directing a 232 investigation into critical minerals processing to address the concentration of supply chain risks.
Japan's 2010 experience serves as a cautionary tale; while initial industry reactions focused on cost and quality, resiliency became a primary factor only after supply shocks.

Phoenix Tailings operates a zero-waste, zero-emissions rare earth refining facility in Massachusetts, capable of processing material from both mined concentrates and industrial tailings.
Traditional Chinese processing produces 2,000 tons of waste for every ton of metal and emits hazardous hydrogen fluoride gas, making it non-compliant with U.S. environmental standards.
The company currently ships metal to customers producing magnets for the EV sector and has signed a $200 million contract, having sold three years of production capacity.
Corporate Venture Capital (CVC) arms, such as BHP's, are increasingly investing in U.S. startups to secure supply chains, with 75% of BHP's CVC investments located in the U.S.
Downstream industrial players, including Yamaha, BMW, and GM, are providing capital to startups to de-risk price volatility and secure off-take agreements.
AI and machine learning are being utilized to target exploration sites more effectively and optimize mining throughput, with AI data center applications requiring copper equivalent to three times the world's largest mine.

Investors are shifting from an ESG-driven aversion to mining toward viewing critical minerals as essential holdings for economic growth and AI exposure.
The industry requires multi-billion dollar projects with strong balance sheets to survive the long lead times and capital intensity of modern mining.
Tailings, previously considered non-toxic waste, are now viewed as a significant secondary source of critical minerals like terbium and dysprosium.
If supply gaps are not met, commodity prices will rise to induce investment, but the structural gap is unlikely to close without accelerated permitting and technology adoption.
The "inducement price" model is being challenged by the reality that even at higher prices, the time lag in bringing new supply online creates a persistent deficit.