Conference Presentation, Panel
Debating Online Higher Education: Sebastian Thrun and Niall Ferguson
Milken InstituteSebastian Thrun, Niall Ferguson, Tom Stewart, Martin Splitt, David Leonhardt Jr., Robb Boyd Jr., Peter Barron, Sachit Egan, David Baddielski, Gerhard Hoffstaedtersen, David Levinson, Sebastian Wehrmann, Iran, Christian Brinkhoff, Serena Rosso, Martha Hutton, Alan Seales, Jonathan Zittrain
- Online education is predicted to materially disrupt, transform, and improve higher education, with adoption expected to continue significant growth over the next few years and reach underserved demographics including busy individuals and those in the developing world.
- A majority of U.S. colleges and universities are predicted to remain undecided regarding MOOCs, while Clay Christensen estimates that within 15 years, half of American colleges may face bankruptcy due to a financial crisis existing independently of online education.
- McKinsey projects a global skills gap by 2020 involving 80 million unfilled jobs, creating demand for a mindset shift where learning becomes a lifelong activity interleaved with work, as the average person takes approximately seven different careers with low tenure in each.
- Udacity plans to expand content significantly and expects to become profitable eventually despite current losses, potentially adopting a business model with paid versions including career services at 10% of normal university costs.
- Future online instruction is predicted to become more engaging, potentially as interactive as video games, with technology expected to disrupt every field approximately every 10 years, necessitating continuous education delivered via smartphones.
- Online education is expected to act as a complementary medium or a "funnel" rather than a "siphon," though power law distribution may cause the top three schools to capture the majority of attention and money, including a potential "Tom Cruise teacher" model generating billions in revenue if scaled.
- While online formats are considered better suited for STEM subjects like mathematics, physics, and coding, the future of humanities education online will require different pedagogical approaches and interactive gaming structures.
- Completion rates for MOOCs are predicted to improve through the addition of human mentors, career advice, and interactive elements, creating a hybrid model that combines online scalability with human interaction.
- The "magic" of the university is expected to persist only if institutions maintain roles in collective research and social functions that cannot be replicated online, though an "a la carte" model raises complex questions regarding the funding of essential non-compliant activities.
- Financial sustainability is anticipated to require viable business models reflecting actual costs, as the current system of high tuition and debt may be rejected by young people, and free education is viewed by some as an illusion.
- Current capacity issues are evidenced by 472,000 wait-listed students in California and a lack of state funds to offer units to all interested students, indicating a large population seeking education currently unserved by traditional institutions.
- Online learners are expected to differ significantly from on-campus students, often comprising older working professionals, while the average tenure in positions remains low, requiring the workforce to adapt to new professions continuously.
- High-quality global education is predicted to potentially lead to fewer wars, and human resource utilization is expected to increase as exclusivity of traditional higher education is addressed.
- Technology will likely disrupt every field approximately every 10 years, necessitating a shift where learning is an integral, lifelong part of life rather than a phase ending at age 21.