E129: Sam Altman plays chess with regulators, AI's "nuclear" potential, big pharma bundling & more
- The hosts anticipate that candid Reddit feedback regarding them will be entertaining, as they have never previously conducted 360-degree reviews on the platform.
- Jay Carlen predicts that AI will replace his specific hosting skills and ability to influence dentist investments within approximately three shows.
- The All In Summit 2023 general admission is expected to remain sold out due to demand exceeding predictions for a larger venue, which has led to the pause of scholarship applications, while the remaining 750 VIP tickets are expected to sell quickly with a wine budget estimated at $300,000 per night or $1,000 per VIP per event.
- A separate US agency for AI is proposed to oversee the technology, potentially issuing licenses for training, using, compiling, and performing learning on AI models, with open source models expected to outpace closed AI models in performance.
- AI models are projected to become ubiquitous, commoditized, and small enough to run on edge devices like iPhones within five to ten years, rendering regulatory auditing a "fool's errand" as tracking individual servers or computers becomes impossible.
- Given the future difficulty in tracking decentralized models, regulatory approval is expected to be necessary now, as a lack of stage gates could allow the generation of toxic molecules or the creation of a toxic molecule list with a training cost as low as $200,000.
- The number of entities capable of running massive GPU clusters is limited due to training costs in the tens or hundreds of millions, and regulations requiring permission could create a "virtual line" where overworked regulators struggle to approve projects to avoid blame.
- A new AI agency might establish a "Know Your Customer" (KYC) regime requiring tax IDs for large GPU clusters, though this is expected to be ineffective once models become decentralized enough to run on edge devices.
- If AI increases knowledge worker productivity by 30%, the number of startups is expected to grow significantly, though the extent of this growth is debated between "significant" and "unlimited."
- Protectionist and unionist sentiments in the EU and elsewhere are expected regarding AI due to fears of knowledge worker job collapse, driven by a Washington political "vibe" that seeks to control technology out of fear rather than technical understanding.
- Elon Musk's hiring of Linda Yaccarino as Twitter CEO is viewed as a strategic move to offload advertising responsibilities, though the partnership is expected to fail if she attempts to restrict his free speech advocacy or rein him in.
- If the FTC blocks major pharmaceutical mergers, investors are expected to exit the early-stage venture financing landscape, and such blocking is predicted to suppress venture returns by removing M&A as a primary exit strategy alongside IPOs.
- The FTC's focus on blocking deals like Amgen/Horizon is not expected to solve drug inflation, as Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) are identified as the real culprits, with the agency expected to begin investigating them more effectively.
- The FTC's blockage of major deals is expected to result from a misunderstanding of the technology, leading to regulations based on emotion rather than technical reality, potentially creating a regulatory "moat" for major incumbents.
- Apple's AR headset is expected to ship in the fall with a projected cost of around $3,000, representing a risk to release a prototype rather than a finished product, with the long-term goal of integrating AI to layer intelligence on the world for notifications, summaries, and recommendations.
- The housing market is expected to remain frozen due to high interest rates preventing mobility, leading to reduced selling and rising consumer discontent, while the low percentage of Americans viewing it as a good time to buy indicates plummeting consumer confidence beyond interest rate impacts.
- San Francisco's commercial real estate market is expected to face a significant crisis as banks own "zombie office towers" that will require loan write-offs, with a current 35% vacancy rate that AI companies absorbing one million square feet will not resolve, unlike the dynamic demand seen in New York City.
- Rent prices for non-desirable office towers in San Francisco are expected to fall significantly, though demand remains concentrated in the best areas and newest buildings.
- Extended periods of lawlessness are expected to lead to vigilante situations similar to historical incidents, with a mental health crisis driving current violent incidents, potentially solvable by converting post offices into scaled shelters and mental health facilities outside expensive city centers.
- George Soros's funding of District Attorneys is expected to be motivated by a desire to change laws through prosecutorial discretion rather than legislation, while his Open Societies Foundation is expected to be fomenting regime change globally to create dissension.
- The media is expected to falsely represent Jordan Neely in the Daniel Penny case by highlighting old photos and omitting his criminal history, which influences the pressure on the District Attorney to prosecute.