E61: 2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more

COVID-19 Outbreak & Accountability at Sax's Event

• Participants discussed a superspreader event at a party hosted by Sax, where multiple attendees contracted COVID-19 despite pre-entry testing mandates.
• Jason Calacanis claimed he tested upon entry but utilized a "bestie card" to bypass the line, later admitting this was a joke; he maintains he tested with his daughter.
• Freeberg noted that a group arriving early with negative tests from a prior event reportedly brought the virus in, incubating for five days before symptoms appeared.
• Jason Calacanis confirmed he tested positive nine days after the event, having experienced two days of symptoms including throat tickles and coughing.
• Chamath Palihapitiya highlighted that Sax had a "tickle in the throat" prior to the event, raising questions about whether he introduced the virus.
• Participants argued that no single individual should be blamed, attributing the spread to the Omicron variant's ubiquity and the inherent risks of social gatherings.
• The group criticized the lack of follow-up care from attendees regarding Jason's health, focusing instead on mockery of his infection.

2022 Political Predictions

• Ron DeSantis (Winner): Predicted to win re-election in Florida and become a national GOP front-runner due to his policy of treating the population like adults, keeping schools and businesses open while making vaccines available.
• Vladimir Putin (Winner): Expected to benefit from rising US-China tensions and trade relationships with China; predicted to become a stronger geopolitical player regarding NATO and Ukraine.
• Xi Jinping (Winner): Anticipated to emerge as a global winner as he solidifies "ruler for life" status, controlling critical supply chains, though his dominance may come at the cost of internal Chinese economic stability and billionaire wealth.
• Donald Trump, Joe Biden, & Nancy Pelosi (Losers): Predicted to suffer significant losses; Trump faces destruction due to January 6th proceedings and potential non-candidacy; Biden expected to lose the House in the midterms; Pelosi projected to announce retirement following the loss of the House due to the "Build Back Better" vote.
• The Progressive Left (Loser): Chamath Palihapitiya predicts the progressive class will suffer as policy failures regarding teachers' unions and lack of scientific grounding expose them as "policy jokes."
• United States Global Influence (Loser): Freeberg predicts a precipitous decline in US geopolitical, social, and economic influence, potentially triggered by conflicts involving Taiwan.
• Populism Trend: A rising force expected to swell in 2022, driven by anti-elitism and wealth concentration, manifesting on both the left and right in the US and globally (e.g., Brazil).
• Bill Clinton: Sax predicts a resurgence of respect for Bill Clinton's political strategy within the Democratic Party as they attempt to triangulate back to the center after a predicted "red wave."
• AOC Primary Run: Sax predicts Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will run against Chuck Schumer in a June 2022 primary and lose, highlighting internal Democratic factionalism.
• Hispanic/Asian American Voters: Sax anticipates these groups will swing significantly toward Republicans in 2022, rejecting the "handout" narrative of the progressive left.

Business & Economic Trends

• Best Business Winners:
  • Small Businesses & The "Rise of the Rest": Chamath and Sax predict small businesses and non-coastal US states (Florida, Texas, Tennessee) will outperform due to the expiration of the SALT deduction and migration away from California and New York.
  • Stripe: Freeberg predicts Stripe's potential direct listing could become the largest tech IPO in history, breaking Alibaba's valuation record.
  • Disney: Expected to surge due to strong performance of Disney+, theme park ticket price hikes, and hits like Boba Fett and Spider-Man.
  • Millennials & Gen Z: Predicted as the biggest winners due to financial independence gained during the pandemic, interest in entrepreneurship, and reduced trust in traditional power structures.
• Best Business Losers:
  • Visa & Mastercard: Chamath predicts these traditional payment rails will face destruction by Web3 decentralized payment infrastructure, advising a short position against their market caps.
  • Non-Delivery Crypto Projects: Both Jason and Freeberg predict 90% of crypto projects without real-world utility or products will fail in a market shakeout.
  • Asset Classes Dependent on Liquidity: David Sacks warns that the end of Fed Quantitative Easing (QE) will negatively impact asset classes inflated by excess liquidity, including collectibles, art, and high-growth stocks.
• Payment Infrastructure: "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) services are identified as a transitional arbitrage model that will pave the way for decentralized crypto payment alternatives.
• Battery Metals: Chamath identifies lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite as the best-performing asset class of 2022 due to demand for energy storage.
• Energy & Defense: Freeberg predicts energy commodities and defense stocks will outperform amidst anticipated global conflicts.
• Early-Stage Startups: David Sacks predicts Series A and early-stage startups will remain the best-performing assets as founders become more sophisticated in global scaling and product-market fit.

Social & Cultural Predictions

• Biotech "Fountain of Youth": Freeberg predicts a gold rush in biotech involving Yamanaka factor-based cell reprogramming, driven by significant investment from Altos Labs, Calico, and New Limit.
• School Choice Ballot Initiative: Chamath predicts a major ballot initiative in California next year proposing $13,000 per-pupil vouchers to break teacher union monopolies, expecting massive spending on both sides.
• Media Narrative Shift: Sax predicts the mainstream media will undergo a "180" on COVID, shifting from fear-mongering to a "live with it" narrative to accommodate the 2022 election cycle and acknowledge Omicron's lower lethality.
• Underreported Impact on Children: The group identifies the crushing mental health impact, learning loss, and increased suicide rates among children due to pandemic policies as the most significant underreported story of the past year.
• Crypto Regulations: Predictions include changes to accredited investor laws and the establishment of a legal crypto framework, enabling global capital formation and tokenized fund shares.
• Entertainment Trends: Anticipated releases include Yellowstone Season 9, Thor: Love and Thunder, House of the Dragon, and the Obi-Wan Kenobi series.
• New Media Venture: Chamath announces plans to launch "All-In Media" in May 2022, aiming to create a truth-based media entity independent of traditional advertising models.

Personal Interactions & Debates

• Animal Agriculture vs. Human Slavery: Freeberg sparked a debate by equating the scale of animal suffering (100 billion land animals killed annually) to human slavery, arguing for the moral imperative to adopt lab-grown meat.
• Chamath's Counter: Chamath argued that human consumption choices are a result of evolutionary superiority and currently viable choices, asserting that while animal suffering is abhorrent, it is not equivalent to human suffering.
• Future of Meat: Chamath committed to tasting lab-grown meat within the next three years, promising to stop eating meat if the technology becomes commercially viable and palatable.
• Video Game Consumption: Participants discussed playing artistic and simulation games (e.g., Maquette, Anna Perna's bio-sim) rather than traditional action games.