Conference Presentation, Interview, Fireside Chat
E61: 2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more
- Predicts a GOP "red wave" in the November 2022 midterms causing Democratic House losses, Nancy Pelosi's retirement, and a demographic shift where Hispanics and Asian Americans vote Republican in large numbers due to opposition to "free money" handouts.
- Foresees Ron DeSantis re-elected comfortably in Florida by treating the population like adults regarding COVID policies, positioning him as a national GOP front-runner, while Donald Trump is expected to be "destroyed" by the January 6th investigation and withdraw from the 2024 race.
- Anticipates Vladimir Putin gaining strength as a global player and trade partner with China over the next year, while predictions on Xi Jinping diverge between viewing him as a lifelong ruler controlling supply chains versus a leader losing power amid debt implosions like Evergrande and potential civil unrest.
- Projects a surge in populism driven by anti-elitism and wealth concentration, alongside a "civil war" between progressives and pragmatic liberals within the Democratic Party, and a media pivot to frame COVID as a manageable flu-like illness following the election cycle.
- Warns of potential "great global conflict" or proxy wars in Ukraine or Taiwan next year driven by inflation and populism, and notes a low-probability, high-severity "black swan" natural catastrophe currently underappreciated by markets.
- Expects the Federal Reserve to end quantitative easing in March 2022, triggering asset class declines (stocks, sports cards, art, crypto) as liquidity recedes, and predicts 90% of crypto projects lacking products will fail as interest rates rise.
- Identifies battery metals (lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite), Series A venture capital, and energy commodities as top-performing assets for 2022, while predicting Visa and Mastercard will face material decline over five to ten years due to web3 competition.
- Highlights specific corporate and entertainment winners including Disney's 2022 surge from streaming and franchises, Stripe's direct listing potentially breaking Alibaba's valuation record, and a "gold rush" in biotech via Yamanaka cell reprogramming.
- Forecasts a "rise of the rest" trend where states like Florida, Texas, and Tennessee boom on zero taxes and SALT deduction changes, while California and New York suffer, alongside small businesses thriving against monopolies due to anticipated taxation policies.
- Envisions Gen Z and Millennials as the biggest winners of 2022 through crypto and stock trading empowerment, peer-to-peer payment systems replacing traditional rails starting in Africa, and cell-based meat reaching commercial scale within five to ten years.
- Details specific political actions such as AOC potentially running against Schumer in a June 2022 primary to lose, a California school choice ballot initiative with $13,000 vouchers and $100 million in spending, and anticipated changes to accredited investor laws and crypto frameworks.
- Notes the creation of "All-In Media" via the May 2022 Miami summit and predicts specific entertainment hits including Yellowstone season nine, House of the Dragon, and the Obi-Wan Kenobi show, while suggesting China may shift its image toward climate leadership via nuclear investments and 2060 carbon goals.