Dec 20, 2018, 12:30 PM ETConference Presentation, Panel

European Values, Identity, and Politics in 2019

Douglas Alexander identifies a fundamental shift in Western public life from questions of economic ideology (taxes, state size) to questions of belonging (national identity, security).
Causal Link: The 2008 financial crisis eroded public trust in traditional institutions and storytellers, creating a vacuum filled by new narratives centered on identity and insecurity.
Core Components of Belonging:
- A sense of belonging is inextricably linked to personal security.
- Belonging relies on the sharing of common stories and cultural contexts.

Ayaan Hirsi Ali argues that while European elites comfortably discuss "economic belonging," they have placed a taboo on discussing intangible cultural integration, religion, and norms.
Contextual Misunderstanding: Cultural conflicts often stem from differing survival contexts; for example, in post-civil war Somalia, defensive violence is a learned survival mechanism, whereas in Europe, it is a criminal offense.
The "Taboo" Problem: Avoiding discussions on cultural incompatibility regarding women's rights, violence, and religious norms is described as "criminal" and creates false promises for both newcomers and host nations.
Responsibility: Maintaining liberal democracy requires a commitment from both incumbent populations and newcomers to understand each other and build "social group glue."

Gemma Mortensen (More in Common Foundation) reports a majority in France, Germany, the US, and Italy labeled as the "exhausted majority," feeling unrepresented by mainstream discourse.
Moral Foundation Theory: Populist narratives succeed by exploiting specific moral pillars not addressed by liberal elites:
- Care and Fairness: Shared by both Left and Right.
- Loyalty, Authority, and Purity: Frequently invoked by nativist/populist movements to trigger in-group/out-group tribalism.
Nativism as Strategy: Nativist movements exploit the perception that elites do not care about the common person, framing immigration as an assault on loyalty, authority, and purity (e.g., stories about food or disease).
The Middle Ground: Research indicates a large, quiet majority capable of compromise, but they are currently alienated by polarized political extremes.

Douglas Murray argues Europe faces a "strange death" due to two factors:
- Rapid demographic changes where new populations do not automatically absorb the culture of the host nation (e.g., the "Blitz spirit" does not transfer with migration).
- A lack of a unifying self-belief or vision for Europe, with the Left prioritizing minority rights as foundations (which Murray argues are "products" not "foundations") and the Right unable to define what to conserve across diverse nations.
Integration Contradiction: Murray contrasts the 2010 Potsdam speech (where Angela Merkel said migrants were not expected to stay) with the subsequent realization that they were staying and allowed to maintain their own cultures, creating a confused integration strategy.
The "Driving" Analogy: Murray uses the metaphor of driving on the wrong side of the road to illustrate that while cultural differences (food) are acceptable, rejecting fundamental rules of the host society (e.g., honor killings, segregation) must be strictly enforced.
London Paradox: Ayaan Hirsi Ali disputes the idea that London's diversity is purely positive, noting that 23 of 33 London boroughs now have "White British" minorities, yet paradoxically show higher rates of opposition to gay marriage (double the national average) than rural areas.

Economic Inequality: Douglas Alexander notes that cultural anxiety is often rooted in economic dislocation; without a shared economic stake, integration fails.
Urban vs. Provincial Divide: There is a growing chasm between booming, diverse international cities and "broken" provincial towns, with the latter experiencing higher antipathy toward migration.
Self-Selection vs. Interaction:
- Murray's Counter: The high tolerance in diverse areas like London is often due to self-selection, where those who dislike diversity have moved out, rather than genuine integration.
- Mortensen's Counter: Social science confirms that sustained interaction reduces prejudice, suggesting the need for policy investment in housing, schooling, and reconnecting divided communities.
Automation vs. Immigration: Murray argues that the threat to American jobs is primarily automation (robots), not immigration; however, populist rhetoric focuses on borders to promise a return to a "Besser yesterday" (1980s economic conditions).

Migration Statistics: Douglas Murray cites a 2016 admission by EC Vice President Franz Timmermans that 60% of arrivals between 2015–2016 had no right to be in Europe, characterizing the response as a failure of justice for both newcomers and host citizens.
Swedish Example: Sweden increased its population by 2–3% in 2015–2016 with unskilled, non-Swedish-speaking labor, creating long-term integration challenges for an aging society.
Karen Stenner's "Authoritarian Dynamic": Mortensen notes that approximately 30% of any population has a latent authoritarian tendency triggered by a sense of threat; the rapid pace of change and complexity is activating this group.
Optimism vs. Realism: The panel concludes that blind optimism or pessimism is unhelpful; the path forward requires honest, uncomfortable conversations about cultural compatibility, the limits of integration, and the need for structured, rather than open, asylum policies.
Walls vs. Bridges: Murray dismisses the binary of "bridges or walls," noting that functional borders (like security walls on Westminster Bridge) are already accepted realities; the debate must move beyond 1968-style rhetoric to address security and order.
Globalization Costs: The panel agrees that the burdens of globalization are disproportionately borne by the poorest in rich nations, and ignoring this reality allows populist narratives to thrive.