Conference Presentation, Panel
European Values, Identity, and Politics in 2019
- The next few decades are predicted to be defined by unprecedented rupture and dislocation across multiple indicators, driven by the pace of change outstripping society's capacity to accommodate it.
- Societies face a significant threat of authoritarianism activating in approximately 30% of populations due to feelings of threat, leading to a greater disposition towards political parties that seek to dismantle the existing system.
- Economic divergence is expected to persist between booming cities and broken provincial towns, creating inequality that prevents shared stakes and interests within society.
- Automation is forecast to displace far more middle-class jobs than migration sources, yet this technological shift will not eliminate the pervasive fear of threat and danger regarding the future.
- Failure to strengthen social cohesion through increased mutual understanding or to implement structural economic changes is expected to result in societal rupture and the inability to function effectively.
- Current integration strategies are predicted to fail if they ignore cultural contexts, leading to a confusion of norms where migrants and natives remain unable to agree on essential discards or expectations.
- Demographic shifts and a lack of belief in European identity are anticipated to cause a "strange death" of Europe, characterized by populations changing significantly and the vacuum being filled by new metaphysics based on minority rights or fragmented right-wing definitions.
- Continued underestimation of migration numbers and overestimation of integration abilities are projected to result in catastrophic outcomes, including the tragic decline of the asylum component and the creation of societal cruelty.
- Populist movements are expected to gain traction among those left behind by a failing economy or burdened by globalization, as honest discussions regarding identity are often dismissed by the establishment.
- Future public and political debate over the next 10 to 20 years will center on balancing diversity protection with measures to not heighten people's sense of threat.
- If the state does not intervene to enforce a common framework against cultural norms that drive society apart, it will be forced to act against the "wrong side of the road" strategies developed by various groups.
- Political instability is foreseen as the left attempts to fill identity vacuums with specific rights-based metaphysics while the right struggles to define its preservation targets amidst shifting national boundaries.