Follow the leader: who will run Hamas?

Hamas Leadership Vacuum and Succession

• Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the October 7th attacks and the newly appointed leader of Hamas, was killed on October 16th in a firefight with Israeli forces inside Gaza.
• Sinwar's death has created a leadership vacuum, as he was the first Hamas commander to reside within Gaza rather than living in exile.
• Sinwar previously centralized power by sidelining the group's Shura council and moderating voices to enforce a "maximalist violent vision," undermining traditional internal checks and balances.
• While Hamas has historically demonstrated institutional resilience against the assassination of senior leaders, the loss of Sinwar challenges the organization's survival and strategic direction.
• Potential successors include:
  • Khalid Mashal: Based in Doha, he represents a traditional Muslim Brotherhood worldview, favors ties with Sunni Arab states and Turkey over Iran, and previously championed the 2017 "New Charter" which hinted at accepting a two-state solution.
  • Khalil al-Hayya: Also based in Doha but originally from Gaza, he represents the hardline wing with ideological alignment toward Iran, militancy, and uncompromising violence.
• Hamas may not immediately appoint a single successor; a transitional leadership council could be formed to avoid placing a specific individual under immediate threat of assassination, a contrast to Hezbollah's rapid succession following the death of Hassan Nasrallah.

US Election: Georgia and the Black Vote

• Less than two weeks before the election, Georgia remains a critical swing state where Kamala Harris is currently favored to lose in The Economist's forecast model despite a previous hand recount confirming Joe Biden's 2020 win.
• Georgia holds the highest share of Black voters among all US swing states, with Black voters comprising half of the 1.9 million new voters registered between 2000 and 2020.
• Polling indicates a significant erosion of Black support for Harris compared to Biden's 2020 performance:
  • Harris trails Biden by approximately 10 percentage points among Black voters in Georgia.
  • National polling places Harris's support among Black voters between 78% and 84%, down from the 96–97% average during the Obama years.
• The demographic shifting away from Harris is primarily young Black men, who prioritize economic issues like jobs and inflation over civil rights; only 40% of Black men under 30 currently cite civil rights as a salient issue compared to older cohorts.
• Harris's campaign strategy to regain this demographic includes:
  • High-profile events with Michelle Obama, Usher, and Barack Obama.
  • Policy proposals specifically targeting Black men, including legalizing marijuana, protecting cryptocurrency assets, and expanding forgivable loans.
  • Broad economic messaging regarding a $25,000 down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers and extending the child tax credit to $6,000.
• Activist Stacey Abrams argues that Democrats must better connect economic anxieties (safety, future access to jobs) to the broader concept of civil rights to re-engage skeptical voters.

Fethullah Gulen: Rise, Fall, and Death

• Fethullah Gulen, a Turkish cleric who died at age 83, was once considered the second most powerful figure in Turkey before being accused of orchestrating a 2016 coup attempt against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
• Gulen spent nearly two decades in self-imposed exile at the Golden Valley Retreat Center in Pennsylvania, where he produced videos and audio for millions of followers while under investigation in Turkey.
• His influence was built through a network of approximately 2,000 schools established in the 1970s, which blended Western philosophy and science with Sufi Islam to cultivate graduates who entered the Turkish civil service, police, and military.
• The alliance between Gulen and Erdogan collapsed in 2013 when Gulenists turned their anti-corruption efforts against the ruling government.
• Following the failed 2016 coup, which resulted in 250 deaths, Erdogan launched mass purges targeting suspected Gulenists, though Gulen publicly denied involvement and cited his opposition to violence.
• Evidence of his dual persona includes public statements cursing Erdogan and expressing desire for revenge, contrasting with his self-presentation as a gentle scholar surrounded by devoted followers who venerated his personal belongings.