Interview, Fireside Chat, Statement
Follow the leader: who will run Hamas?
- Hamas is expected to demonstrate institutional resilience and likely emerge stronger following the assassination of Yahya Sinwa, with the organization considered unlikely to collapse; however, to protect a potential successor from immediate targeting, the group may delay naming a new leader for several months and operate under a transitional leadership council rather than appointing a single individual immediately.
- Leadership succession dynamics present distinct ideological divides: Khalid Mashal is viewed as a potential moderate figure capable of pursuing a two-state solution or joining the PLO, whereas Khalil al-Hayya represents a hardline wing ideologically aligned with Iran and an uncompromising approach to the war.
- Kamala Harris faces a significant decline in support among Black voters in Georgia, polling approximately 10 points lower than Joe Biden did in 2020 and attracting a historically low share of this demographic; this shift is most pronounced among young Black men who prioritize economic issues such as jobs, inflation, and safety over civil rights concerns.
- The Harris campaign, which is running out of time with less than two weeks remaining before the election, hopes to leverage promises regarding marijuana legalization, cryptocurrency protections, and forgivable loans to regain skeptical Black voters, while Stacey Abrams urges the party to more aggressively link economic opportunities directly to civil rights.
- Donald Trump is currently favored to win the state of Georgia in The Economist's forecast model, though the outcome remains uncertain as both campaigns intensify their efforts during the final week and a half of the campaign while millions of voters have already cast early ballots.
- Fethullah Gulen intended to quietly embed his influence within the Turkish state apparatus to occupy positions of power without public detection, presenting himself as gentle and non-violent while simultaneously expressing public hostility toward President Erdogan.
- The 2016 military coup is attributed to Gulenist sympathizers within the army, resulting in a system of mass purges and ongoing legal sentencing against perceived opponents; despite Gulen's claims of being uninvolved due to his objection to violence, evidence suggests this narrative served as "window dressing" to conceal his role.