Food Security: How to Feed an Ever-Hungrier World

Panel Context & Objectives

• The panel, organized by the Milken Institute and the World Food Prize, addresses the challenge of feeding a projected 9 billion people by 2050 amidst water scarcity, climate volatility, and soil degradation.
• Ambassador Ken Quinn notes that the World Food Prize was established by Dr. Norman Borlaug (the "man who saved more lives than anyone") after failing to secure a Nobel Prize in Agriculture.
• Borlaug's core assertion cited: Humanity must produce as much grain in the next 50 years as was produced in the previous 10,000 years of agricultural history.
• The World Food Prize's upcoming "Borlaug Dialogue" (October 15–19) will focus on intensification, innovation, and inspiration.

Nigeria's Agricultural Strategy (Minister Akinwumi Adesina)

• Policy Shift: Nigeria is transitioning agriculture from a "development activity" to a "business," removing the government from direct production and monopoly roles.
• Private Sector Investment: Government reforms attracted $4 billion in private sector investment, with seed company count rising from 5 to 80 within three years.
• Productivity Metrics: Hybrid seed usage increased from 500,000 metric tons to 50,000 tons (note: speaker implies volume or adoption rate increase leading to 50% of farmers using hybrid tech today vs. 5% previously).
• Digital Intervention: The "electronic wallet scheme" distributed fertilizer and seed subsidies via mobile phones, reaching 8 million farmers and increasing input access from <10% to 80–90%.
• Financial Leverage: A $350 million risk-sharing facility with the Central Bank of Nigeria leveraged $3.5 billion in bank lending to agriculture, increasing the agricultural share of total bank lending from 0.7% to 5%.
• Soil Health: Current fertilizer use in Africa is ~13 kg/hectare compared to a global average of ~135 kg/hectare; increased inorganic fertilizer use is framed as necessary to prevent deforestation caused by soil nutrient depletion.

Nutrition & Livestock Efficiency (Claudia Garcia, Elanco)

• Protein Demand: The emerging middle class will drive a 60% increase in global demand for milk, meat, and eggs.
• Dairy Efficiency: Increasing milk yield per cow by just 0.5 gallons/day could meet future demand without adding 40 million cows by 2050.
• Environmental Impact: Achieving this efficiency could save 66 million cows, 388 million acres of land (size of Alaska), and 618 billion gallons of water (equivalent to annual needs of UK, Germany, and France).
• Nutritional Science: Studies in Kenya confirm that access to animal protein (meat, milk, oils) improves children's cognitive development and leadership potential.
• Strategic Pillars: Elanco advocates for a food-secure world based on Innovation, Trade, and Choice.

Genetic Innovation (Doron Gow, Kaima)

• Technology: Kaima utilizes "genome multiplication" (polyploidy), a non-GMO technique that doubles plant chromosomes to create more robust crops better adapted to climate stress.
• Evolutionary Basis: The method mimics natural evolutionary processes (like the origin of bread wheat) but accelerates them in a directed manner.
• Performance Data: Field trials in India using a Chinese rice variety adapted via this method showed a 60% yield increase (25% from baseline robustness, 35% from enhanced environmental adaptability).

Venture Capital & Ag-Tech Ecosystems (Mark Kahn, Omnivore Partners)

• Investment Themes: Five major investment areas in Ag-Tech: Genetics (seeds/traits), Sustainable Inputs (replacing toxic pesticides), Big Data (precision farming), Precision Agriculture (automation/robotics), and Innovative Foods (plant-based substitutes).
• Labor Trends: Automation is critical as youth in developing nations (e.g., India) reject farming careers; technology is needed to make agriculture profitable and reduce labor intensity.
• M&A Activity: The sector is seeing significant strategic exits (e.g., Climate Corporation acquired by Monsanto for $1B; AgriQuest by Bayer; Precision Planting by Monsanto).
• India's Potential: India is positioned to become a global "sleeping giant" in Ag-Tech; if India matched global yield leaders, it could add 250–300 million tons of grain to the global market.
• Fund Size: Omnivore Partners is a $50 million fund; Kahn argues smaller funds often outperform larger ones in early-stage deployment, though Series D+ growth capital is needed for scaling.

Aquaculture Sustainability (Mike Vellings, AquaSpark)

• Supply Gap: Global seafood demand is projected to rise by 100 million metric tons in 35 years, exceeding current wild catch (65 million metric tons) which cannot increase due to overfishing.
• Resource Efficiency: Aquaculture is identified as the most resource-efficient animal protein source; producing 1 kg of tilapia requires 1.4 kg of feed and no water consumption, versus 1 kg of beef requiring 8–35 kg of feed and 8,000 liters of water.
• Investment Returns: AquaSpark targets 35–60% annual returns across aquaculture, insect farming, and seaweed operations through an ecosystem model providing capital, expertise, and market access.
• Feeds: Insect farming (flies/maggots) is highlighted as a sustainable feed solution to replace anchovies and sardines currently used for farmed fish.

Food Waste & Infrastructure

• Waste Volume: 1.3 billion metric tons of food is wasted annually (one-third of global production), generating massive greenhouse emissions and resource waste.
• Developed Nations: ~$198 billion of food is wasted in the US, primarily at the consumer level due to misinterpretation of "expiration" dates.
• Developing Nations: Post-harvest losses are driven by poor infrastructure (roads, storage, cold chains); rural road expansion correlates directly with poverty reduction and food security.
• Policy Recommendation: Governments must regulate against food waste and promote food banks rather than landfilling, while consumers must improve planning to reduce over-purchasing.

Future Financing & Deployment

• Project vs. Startup: Speaker Mark Kahn argues against "projects" in smallholder agriculture, favoring startups that build efficient distribution networks; project finance is deemed more suitable for national-level infrastructure and farm-level capital expenditures.
• Research Gap: The primary bottleneck is insufficient funding for public and private research; increased government and institutional investment in R&D is required to drive downstream innovation.
• Capital Flow: Venture capital in Ag-Tech is estimated at ~$750M–$1B in the US/Canada, with a specific need for larger "growth capital" funds to scale successful startups beyond Series A/B.
• Geographic Focus: The "valley of death" for deploying innovations (e.g., Kaima, Indian Ag-Tech firms) exists at the transition from proof-of-concept to commercial project financing ($32T fixed-income market potential remains underutilized).