Conference Presentation, Panel
Food Security: How to Feed an Ever-Hungrier World
Milken InstituteGlenn Yeager, Ken Quinn, Akinwumi Adesina, Claudia Garcia, Doron Gow, Mark Kahn, Mike Vellings
- The World Food Prize anticipates hosting the Borlaug Dialogue symposium in Des Moines, Iowa, with approximately 1,500 participants from 65 to 70 countries over three days in October of the following year, and plans to award $150,000 to startups in Malawi, Rwanda, Liberia, and Sierra Leone during that same upcoming October.
- Global population is projected to reach between 7 and 9 billion within the coming decades, with 3 billion people from emerging markets expected to join the global middle class.
- Animal protein demand, specifically milk, meat, and eggs, is forecast to rise by approximately 60% as emerging markets expand, potentially requiring 40 million additional cows by 2050 under current trends to maintain consumption standards.
- Innovative agricultural solutions are predicted to eliminate approximately 66 million cows by 2050, potentially saving up to 388 million acres of land and 618 billion gallons of water annually compared to current productivity trends.
- Meeting the needs of a 9 billion population by 2050 is expected to require producing an amount of grain equivalent to the total grown over the past 10,000 to 11,000 years, necessitating significant productivity growth shifts.
- Critical land for feeding the projected population is expected to be located primarily in Africa, where agriculture must transition from a social sector to a business model driven by policy, incentives, and infrastructure rather than direct government management.
- Nigeria plans to increase the number of seed companies from 5 to 80 within two years and expects hybrid-improved technology adoption by farmers to rise from 5% to 50%.
- Mobile phone penetration is expected to reduce corruption and improve food security for 40 million people in Nigeria within two years, with 80% to 90% of farmers projected to receive inputs via electronic wallets in the same timeframe.
- Nigeria's agricultural lending share is expected to increase from 0.7% to 5% of total lending, leveraging a $3.5 billion risk-sharing facility with the Reserve Bank of Nigeria to mobilize $4 billion in private sector investment.
- Genome-multiplied rice varieties are expected to achieve a 60% yield increase, with 25% attributed to baseline robustness and 35% to better environmental adaptability, though the technology remains in early validation stages.
- Agricultural production efficiency is projected to lose 10% for every degree rise in temperature, with climate instability expected to worsen conditions over the next two decades.
- Global seafood demand is forecast to increase by 100 million metric tons over the next 35 years, necessitating a doubling of the aquaculture industry as wild catch fisheries remain stagnant or decline.
- Aquaculture operations are expected to offer investment returns of 35% to 60% annually and could create 55 million global jobs, with half held by women, while requiring significantly less feed and water than beef production.
- Food waste reduction is expected to address roughly 1.3 billion metric tons of annual global waste, with 280 million metric tons lost annually in developed countries, requiring regulatory changes and infrastructure improvements.
- Agricultural technology venture funding is expected to grow across five themes: genetics, sustainable inputs, big data, precision agriculture, and innovative foods, with a shift toward larger capital requirements at Series D and private equity stages rather than early venture stages.
- Small agricultural technology exits in developing countries are expected to evolve into billion-dollar companies, with Indian startups providing scalable solutions for Nigeria, Indonesia, and other regions.
- Automation will become necessary in developing countries where agriculture comprises 50% of the labor force to attract younger generations, and publicly and privately funded research is expected to be the primary driver of future innovations.