Conference Presentation, Panel
Global Asset Management and Alternatives | Global Conference 2025
Milken InstituteSarah Sandler, Jennifer Prosek, Kamal Bhatia, Kim Lew, Tony Minella, Rick Rieder, Daniel Simkowitz
- The Milken Institute conference theme focuses on cross-sector community building to "build a flourishing future," with panelists collectively managing or allocating nearly $50 trillion in assets.
- Economic outlooks describe a divergence between near-term nervousness, potential growth dislocations, and expected market volatility, while maintaining a belief in long-term resilience and self-correction.
- Specific economic predictions include a potential growth "divit" in the U.S. within the next month, a "bull case" scenario of a 5% return contingent on trade policy equilibrium and deregulation, and a possibility of a 5% return despite a six-to-nine-month period of uncertainty.
- Government financing is expected to shift toward business-like models and efficient securitization, potentially multiplying infrastructure spending tenfold, while the distinction between public and private markets is predicted to blur in favor of cash flow and asset structure analysis.
- Private market trends indicate high trajectory allocation, moving into the third or fourth inning of a long-term trend, with democratization extending into retirement accounts like 401(k)s and 401(k)s, and new opportunities emerging in Japan, continental Europe, India, and Australia.
- Regional investment opportunities include Europe's growing logistics and warehouse securitization market, Australia's trade position, India's rapid change, and Japan's corporate governance reforms, while Chinese stocks are viewed as the world's cheapest despite geopolitical risks.
- U.S. economic health is contingent on protecting the venture capital community and innovation, though concerns exist regarding innovation leaving for Europe, reserve currency dilution, and debt levels reaching $36 to $40 trillion if fiscal objectives are not met.
- Policy clarity, particularly regarding tax and deregulation, is expected to turbocharge the economy, with success dependent on the administration sticking to deficit-cutting objectives and effectively communicating reindustrialization efforts.
- Technological shifts driven by AI will likely handle base skills, requiring human differentiation through global thinking and problem formulation, with the world expected to be "unbelievably different" in two years regarding these innovations.
- Investment strategies are advised to focus on the extremes of the spectrum, such as attaching to AI/innovation or origination sourcing, as market beta is expected to be freely available via ETFs, while wealth management will increasingly value solution packaging over pure alpha generation.
- Professional development is expected to prioritize sales roles for young investors to foster resilience against rejection, with a historical observation that oldest siblings may be particularly equipped for leadership and risk management.
- Specific return expectations include achieving 9% to 11% in construction lending within major gateway cities, while a blended public, private, and credit portfolio targeting a 7% return at a lower volatility threshold is deemed attractive for pension and endowment funds.
- Uncertainty remains regarding the speed of solutions to current economic dislocations, with the view that predicting specific outcomes for the world one to three years hence is currently impossible due to the sheer volume of expected change.
- Capital structures are evolving with Eldridge Capital Management becoming the primary investor in strategies while accepting outside capital, and the GP Solutions Fund aiming to provide liquidity to limited partners and allow for the recapitalization of best assets.