Global Overview: Capital in a Changing World | Global Investors' Symposium 2026

Geopolitical Volatility and U.S. Exposure

• Hoi Han-Wee identifies a key strategic dilemma regarding the reliability of the U.S. market due to policy shocks and volatility, prompting a review of the firm's $60 billion non-China dollar portfolio.
• While current U.S. exposure is roughly 90% of the non-China capital deployed, the firm is considering trimming this allocation given the erosion of rule-based reliability.
• Sovereign funds and pension funds face a more urgent need to diversify away from U.S. concentration, as 70-80% of their portfolios are typically geared toward the U.S.
• The panel notes that high oil prices and potential inflation are driving discussions about whether U.S. interest rates will remain higher for longer rather than declining.

China Investment Thesis and Market Thaw

• Hoi posits that China has transitioned from being "uninvestable" during COVID to a market where serious investors should consider re-entry due to economic stability and the return of "animal spirits."
• Two structurally positive sectors for investment identified are:
  • High-end manufacturing and global expansion: China accounts for one-third of global manufacturing capacity, dominates electric vehicles/batteries, and benefits from a surplus of 10 million trained engineers annually.
  • Biotechnology and pharma: China now holds 50% of the global drug development pipeline and offers 4-5x efficiency in clinical trial times and costs compared to peers.
• Hoi highlights that Chinese AI, particularly large language models, is catching up to U.S. standards within six months of U.S. publication, with many models being free and open-sourced.
• Kevin Schneider and Chris I. N. A. observe a "thaw" in investor sentiment, driven by a perceived reduction in the geopolitical risk premium and a desire among foreign investors to regain on-ground understanding after four to five years of travel restrictions.
• Partners Group notes that Chinese capital is increasingly seeking connections with Europe and ASEAN, creating cross-border value chains regardless of direct China investment decisions.
• Aaron Tan suggests the Trump administration's potential desire to strike a deal with China could further reduce investment hesitancy.

Middle East Conflict and Global Energy Markets

• Partners Group reports that only 10% of their global control portfolios have exposure to the Middle East, mitigating immediate short-term risks, though long-term geopolitical fragmentation remains a concern.
• Aaron Tan argues that markets are finally pricing in the reality that the Iran conflict will likely escalate before de-escalating, with reserves potentially depleting within 2-3 weeks if the conflict persists.
• The panel anticipates a future global capital expenditure (capex) cycle focused on energy security, renewables, nuclear power, and defense as nations prioritize energy independence.
• Indonesia's Chris I. N. A. notes that while Indonesia is a net oil importer, it is a net energy and commodity exporter, a balance critical to managing fiscal risks if oil prices remain elevated (e.g., $95/barrel).
• Historical analysis suggests it takes approximately five years for oil supply to return to normal levels after a crisis, potentially creating structural supply issues if countries aggressively increase strategic reserves simultaneously.

Asia-Pacific and Regional Dynamics

• Chris I. N. A. emphasizes a shift from "lowest cost" infrastructure to "near-shoring" and "friend-shoring," positioning ASEAN as a natural economic block for supply chain resilience.
• Indonesia is positioning itself to benefit from the global demand for rare earth metals and minerals required for AI and robotics, rather than just oil.
• The panel highlights that structural changes, such as the acceleration of a multi-polar world, favor economies with strong regional collaboration and cultural interconnectedness like ASEAN.

Private Credit and Market Structure

• Kevin Schneider clarifies that private market managers prioritize stability, unlike hedge funds that trade volatility, and that private information is a legal source of return in private markets.
• The current distress in private credit is attributed to liquidity mismatches in funds marketed to retail/HNW investors, rather than a fundamental flaw in the asset class itself.
• Aaron Tan states that the private credit sector is not facing a systemic crisis; high-yield default rates are currently around 2-3%, compared to 8-9% during the 2008-2009 crisis.
• Partners Group notes that their "democratization" efforts in private credit have been operating for 25 years with robust "plumbing" and liquidity structures, avoiding the issues plaguing competitors.
• Chris I. N. A. observes that private assets in Asia are complementary to public markets and traditional bank lending, with no signs of contagion from the current private credit stress.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Market Psychology

• Aaron Tan predicts a divergence in AI market performance, where initial gains for infrastructure companies may plateau, shifting benefits to end-users and enablers, similar to the post-internet bubble era.
• The panel warns against over-concentration in the handful of AI infrastructure firms, suggesting a move toward diversified, less correlated strategies as the market matures.
• Investors are advised to look beyond software valuations to the physical inputs required for AI, such as metals and rare earths.
• SaaS valuations have corrected significantly due to AI disruption, creating a bifurcation where companies can leverage AI for efficiency will survive, while those unable to adapt may face extinction.

Forward-Looking Capital Deployment

• The consensus among panelists is a shift toward deploying capital in regions with raw material proximity and customer base access, specifically ASEAN and parts of Asia, to hedge against geopolitical fragmentation.
• Investors are expected to increase fiscal spending on infrastructure and defense as countries prioritize energy security and independence.
• Kevin Schneider identifies "boring," predictable trends as prime investment opportunities, including infrastructure needs, AI adoption across non-tech sectors, and the mechanics of the private equity secondary market (which reached $286 billion in transactions last year).
• The panel anticipates that as the Iran conflict resolution or oil price stabilization occurs, markets may see a rebound in non-U.S. assets as the "safe haven" narrative for the dollar shifts.