Panel, Conference Presentation
Global Overview: Capital in a Changing World | Global Investors' Symposium 2026
- Given the U.S. market's perceived lack of rule-based reliability and rising oil prices, capital deployment into the U.S. is being re-evaluated, with expectations that rates will remain "higher rather than going down" and that portfolios currently 90% allocated to the U.S. may be trimmed to diversify away.
- The Chinese economy is assessed as having likely "bottomed out" with growth stabilized around 4.5% to 5%, driving a recommendation for serious investors to consider China now due to recovering animal spirits, a shrinking geopolitical risk premium, and structural strengths in high-end manufacturing, EVs, batteries, and AI.
- The Middle East crisis is expected to have "medium and long-term" impacts on energy prices and geopolitical fragmentation, with oil supply normalization likely taking "about five years," potentially keeping prices near $95/barrel, which could significantly impact fiscal numbers for net oil importers like Indonesia.
- Global investment strategies are predicted to shift toward "shoring" or "friend-shoring" in a "multi-polar world," treating regions like ASEAN as natural blocks, while a global capex cycle is anticipated to benefit non-U.S. markets after the U.S. safe-haven status potentially reverses.
- China's dominance in supply chains, supported by 10 million annual trained engineers, is expected to persist in EVs, renewables, and AI, with specific opportunities noted in biopharma where Chinese trial efficiency is 4 to 5 times higher and the probability of blockbuster drug discovery is estimated at 50%.
- In the AI sector, while the technology is viewed as a broad economic driver, higher energy prices and input costs may delay data center rollouts, potentially causing growth plateaus for current leaders and creating a "stock picker's market" that favors private credit and funds focusing on physical commodities like rare earths and metals.
- Private credit markets face stress concentrated in funds marketed to retail and high-net-worth investors due to liquidity mismatches, though the sector's default rates (2-3%) remain significantly lower than 2008 levels, with expectations that distress will create opportunities for disciplined pivots rather than causing systemic collapse.
- Secondaries investments in private markets are identified as a predictable area for capital deployment, built on a $286 billion market last year, while infrastructure and energy transition assets are expected to remain in demand as central bankers navigate a "tough place" over the next decade.
- The SaaS sector faces a "dramatically" reduced valuation environment exacerbated by AI, with survival dependent on companies' ability to re-engineer workflows using AI, leading to an anticipated mix of incumbent transformation and exits for those unable to adapt.
- Geopolitical dynamics suggest a "24-hour window" for the current crisis escalation, with a 50% probability of a resolution within "two to three weeks," after which energy security, renewables, and nuclear power will likely take precedence in national strategies.
- Historical precedents suggest that structural changes like the role of the U.S. dollar are permanent, while short-term market fluctuations will eventually normalize, with specific predictable events such as a "central government announcement in January" regarding agriculture expected to occur.
- Private managers are prioritizing stability over volatility, contrasting with hedge funds, and the current market nervousness is attributed to information asymmetry rather than fundamental asset flaws, with expectations that the private asset class will complement rather than replace traditional public market capital providers.