Global Risk

Panelists and Context:

• The panel featured General Wesley Clark (chairman of Envera), Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, and Japanese State Minister Yasuhide Nakayama.
• The discussion focused on global risks, including extremism in the Middle East, Russian aggression in Ukraine, China's rise in Asia, and the threat of nuclear proliferation.
• Senator Graham confirmed a 92% probability he would seek the Republican presidential nomination, a figure he noted might rise during the event.

Middle East and Radical Extremism:

• Tony Blair identified a "toxic mix" of bad politics and religion in the Middle East, where state collapse has allowed extremism to replace institutional governance.
• Blair argued that groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda are non-negotiable and must be militarily defeated rather than accommodated.
• Blair advocated for a global compact on education to counter the root causes of extremism, specifically targeting religious intolerance taught in local systems.
• Blair maintained that the Israeli-Palestinian peace process remains fundamental to regional stability, viewing it as a test of cultural acceptance that can undermine extremist narratives.
• Yasuhide Nakayama noted the 2014 execution of Japanese hostages by ISIS proved that negotiation is impossible; the Japanese government decided against paying ransoms based on G8 consensus.
• Nakayama highlighted that modern terrorism leverages high-speed internet and social media, allowing a single actor to disrupt a nation globally without borders.
• Senator Graham stated that the worst outcome of the Iran nuclear deal would be triggering a Sunni-Arab nuclear arms race, fearing these nations would match Iranian capacity.
• Graham proposed a "good deal" must include "anytime, anywhere" inspections of military facilities and a requirement to remove state sponsorship of terrorism before sanctions relief.
• General Clark warned that the Iran agreement risks funding Iranian hegemony, supporting Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and deepening ties with Vladimir Putin.
• Clark emphasized that the Middle East is a theater of "armed struggle" for regional dominance between Iran and Turkey, utilizing proxies like ISIS as government agents.
• Graham suggested a historic opportunity for an Arab-Israeli alliance against common threats (ISIS and Iran) to restart the peace process, proposing a joint effort to remove Assad in Syria.

Ukraine, NATO, and Russian Aggression:

• General Clark warned that "little green men" (Russian special forces) staging unrest in Baltic states could trigger NATO Article 5, necessitating prepared special forces responses.
• Clark compared the international response to Putin's actions in Ukraine to the League of Nations' inaction in 1935 against Italy's invasion of Ethiopia.
• Clark argued that Russia has deployed the densest air defense array in modern Europe in eastern Ukraine and is training separatist units that are 85% Russian.
• Senator Graham advocated for sending lethal arms (such as Javelin missiles) to Ukraine to alter the cost-benefit analysis for Putin, citing the violated Budapest Memorandum.
• Tony Blair stated that Putin's goal is to reverse the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Europe must stand firmly with the US to defend the post-WWII order.
• Panelists identified heavy European dependence on Russian natural gas as a strategic vulnerability exploited by Putin.
• General Clark and Tony Blair called for a U.S. national energy strategy to achieve hydrocarbon independence and transition to a lower-carbon economy to reduce leverage held by authoritarian regimes.
• Senator Graham warned that U.S. defense budgets under sequestration will result in the smallest army since 1940 and the smallest navy since 1915 by 2021.

Asia and Strategic Competition:

• State Minister Nakayama reported that China's defense budget has increased 30 times over 80 years and that China is actively developing space and cyber warfare capabilities.
• Nakayama described a "new Cold War" in cyberspace, where China and Russia seek to control the internet, contrasting with the free internet model of the West.
• Nakayama expressed concern over North Korea's missile capabilities, noting that a missile could reach Osaka in seven minutes.
• Nakayama called for international pressure and diplomatic engagement ("stick and carrot") to determine if North Korea will align with the U.S. or remain under China's communist influence.

Climate Change and Financial Stability:

• Tony Blair asserted that global warming is an undeniable fact and emphasized the need for the upcoming Paris negotiations to establish a framework for sustainable technology development.
• Senator Graham agreed that climate change is real but ranked nuclear proliferation by Iran as a more immediate existential threat, advocating for a pro-business, market-based environmental policy.
• General Clark warned of imminent systemic financial risk, citing hundreds of trillions of dollars in derivatives and unsustainable debt levels.
• Clark called for redirecting financial resources from derivative trading to real economy investments in infrastructure, energy, and petrochemical projects.
• Yasuhide Nakayama concluded with a message attributed to Anne Frank, urging the audience to immediately begin the work of changing the world.