Panel, Conference Presentation
Global Risk
- Global geopolitical and regional stability is projected to face long-term challenges, with the Middle East and North Africa described as immensively difficult for an extended period due to extremist ideologies taught to millions, potentially requiring a long generational struggle for change.
- Specific conflict risks include a potential new Cold War in cyberspace involving China and Russia, fears of North Korean missile strikes reaching certain countries within seven minutes, and anticipated Russian "little green men" takeovers in the Baltic states.
- Concerns regarding Iran include the prediction of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East if a "bad deal" occurs, the possibility of Sunni Arab nations developing nuclear capabilities, and the expectation that Iranian wealth will be directed toward war machines or support for Bashar Assad rather than infrastructure.
- Security alliances and responses are expected to face difficulties, with NATO potentially suffering from budget reductions, confusion over Russian troop identification, and non-implementation of the Minsk II Agreement leading to a "third wave" of Russian attacks.
- Legislative and policy plans include the expectation that the Senate will overwhelmingly approve legislation regarding lifting sanctions on Iran, hopes for six-party talks to address the Korea Peninsula, and a proposed global compact on education to promote religious tolerance.
- Economic and energy outlooks predict that sequestration will result in the smallest US army since 1940 and navy since 2015 by 2021, while entitlement programs face risks of being wiped out if not addressed over the next 25 years; conversely, investment in energy and infrastructure is expected to create jobs.
- Future economic threats include the spread of unsustainable debt through the financial community and the potential for a "lower carbon economy" to reset foreign policy, with suggestions to exploit hydrocarbons now before moving away from them over a 10-to-20-year period.
- International cooperation plans involve the Paris negotiations taking place later this year to establish a framework for the future, an opportunity to jumpstart peace processes through Arab-Israeli engagement, and hopes that real peace is possible on the Korea Peninsula through alignment choices by North Korea.
- Regional power dynamics are expected to shift with a Persian-Turkish competition for dominance, fears of high-level drone technology proliferation among North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan, and China's armament budget increasing 30 times over 80 years while preparing for space and cyber warfare.
- Timeframes referenced range from immediate impacts regarding energy supply measures in the "next few years" to longer-term projections including the 2021 military budget reduction, the 25-year timeline for baby boomer retirements, and a 10-to-20-year roadmap for transitioning away from hydrocarbons.