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How Africa could one day rival China
- Africa's population is projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050 and nearly double again to ~4.5 billion by 2100, with one in three humans worldwide expected to be African by the end of the century.
- UN population forecasts assume slow fertility decline, but studies indicate that improved female education could cause Africa's population to peak and decline by the century's end.
- Primary school enrollment for girls in Ethiopia rose from 34% in 2000 to 81% in 2015; each additional year of education significantly reduces fertility, with women finishing secondary school having ~2 children compared to 6+ for those with no formal education.
- African women generated only 33% of the continent's collective GDP in 2018 despite constituting half the population; equal workforce participation could add 10% to GDP over five years.
- Ethiopia's manufacturing value tripled in the last decade, and the share of manufacturing in GDP has grown since 2011, contrasting with shrinking shares in the developed world.
- However, productivity in African manufacturing remains low, employee turnover is high, and COVID-19 has caused recent order slumps.
- The Eastern Industry Zone, built by a Chinese firm, houses textile and shoe factories, representing Ethiopia's focus on rapid industrialization.
- Conversely, many African nations are expanding "industries without smokestacks," such as tourism, IT, and flower farming.
- Ethiopia is Africa's second-largest flower exporter after Kenya, with the horticultural sector employing 180,000 people and Highland Flora Rose Farm exporting 80,000 stems daily from 31 greenhouses.
- While manufacturing dominates the "China model," experts argue Africa must diversify into services and high-value agriculture to compete with established Asian manufacturing.
- Modernizing agriculture is critical as currently, farmers generate only 15% of GDP despite providing livelihoods for over half the population.
- Smart agriculture technologies, such as computerized irrigation and climate control used in flower farms, are necessary to increase yields and free workers for urban jobs.
- Chronic electricity shortages plague the continent; Ethiopia's solar pioneer Asifa Mengesha supplies water heating to thousands, demonstrating private solutions to infrastructure gaps.
- The Ethiopian government is investing billions in the Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile to generate hydropower, though investors face bureaucratic hurdles.
- Africa emits just 2% of global greenhouse gases yet is predicted to suffer the most severe impacts of climate change.
- Political governance has improved since the 1980s, with most countries transitioning from autocracy to democracy.
- In 2018, Abiy Ahmed became Ethiopia's Prime Minister, winning the Nobel Peace Prize for democracy and peace initiatives, though the country faces risks of ethnic uprisings.
- Long-term optimism depends on governments providing competent administration, upholding the rule of law, and prioritizing education rather than simply copying China's industrial path.
- Short-term challenges include severe economic damage from COVID-19, but long-term trends suggest Africa could become the next major global growth engine.