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How Africa could one day rival China
- The continent's economic and geopolitical fortunes are projected to shift significantly over the coming decades, with a long-term outlook of optimism despite immediate challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Africa is expected to assume a substantially larger role in global affairs by the end of the century, a rise anticipated to accelerate as the Asian growth miracle slows.
- Demographic projections from the UN suggest that by 2100, one in every three humans could be African, with the population potentially reaching 2.5 billion by 2050 if growth rates continue as expected.
- Future population trajectories diverge based on fertility rates; while a slow decline in fertility could cause the population to nearly double again by 2100, even median improvements in social development could lead to a decline in population size before the century ends.
- Risks include fears of starvation if food supply cannot keep pace with population growth, alongside expert predictions that Africa will suffer the most from climate change impacts despite accounting for only 2% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
- Economic potential is linked to women's workforce participation, which currently contributes 33% to the collective GDP; closing the gender gap could add 10% to GDP within the next five years.
- Structural economic changes are underway, with sub-Saharan African manufacturing growing since 2011 and a continent-wide expansion into "industries without smokestacks" such as tourism, IT, and flower farming.
- Technological adoption in sectors like artificial intelligence and blockchain is viewed as inevitable, necessitating skill development for the next generation to compete in the job market within the next five to ten years.
- Modernizing agriculture through smart farming is identified as a requirement to increase yields for rising populations and free workers for higher-paid urban employment.
- Short-term economic damage from COVID-19 has been observed in specific sectors, such as slumping orders in Ethiopia, though adaptation to climate change and educational progress provide reasons for long-term optimism.
- Realizing Africa's potential economic success comparable to China's is contingent upon establishing more competent and accountable governments, a condition described as essential for the next century to be defined as "Africa's century."