How “El Mencho’s” death could reshape Mexico’s largest cartel | The Economist

Immediate Aftermath and Violence

• El Mencho's Death and Initial Instability
  • El Mencho (Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes), leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), was captured and died on Sunday.
  • Immediate violence erupted across at least 15–20 Mexican states, characterized by roadblocks, bus burnings, and flight cancellations.
  • Visitors to the tourist resort of Puerto Vallarta (Jalisco state) were ordered to shelter in place.
  • Violence levels subsided significantly by Monday and returned to near-normal conditions by Tuesday.
• Future Violence Risks
  • Experts warn that removing a cartel head often triggers fragmentation and internecine conflict, potentially generating more violence long-term.
  • Current calm may be a temporary lull (lasting weeks or months) as factions regroup, arm themselves, and form alliances.
  • Historical precedent: A similar lull followed the summer 2024 arrest of a Sinaloa cartel leader, only for open war between factions to break out in September and continue.

CJNG Profile and Capabilities

• Operational Scope
  • The CJNG operates in all 32 Mexican states, holding the distinction of the largest national spread and being the country's most significant criminal player.
  • The organization is an amalgam of up to 92 affiliated groups under a vertical command structure maintained by El Mencho's ruthlessness.
  • The cartel is highly diversified, engaging in fuel theft, corruption, extortion, drug trafficking, and timeshare fraud.
• Military Capabilities and Tactics
  • Known for extreme brutality and being incredibly well-equipped with military-grade weaponry.
  • Possesses anti-aircraft capabilities capable of shooting down military helicopters.
  • Utilizes drones to deploy explosives in targeted areas.
  • Demonstrated high-risk offensive capability in 2020 by attempting to assassinate then-security chief Omar Harfouch in broad daylight in a wealthy Mexico City district.

Strategic Drivers for the Operation

• Political and Diplomatic Pressure
  • Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has prioritized security since taking office ~18 months ago, boosting intelligence capabilities as a break from her predecessor's strategy.
  • The operation occurred under intense pressure from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who threatened unilateral American strikes if Mexican authorities did not target criminal groups.
  • The operation was a strategic necessity to address the U.S. demand for action on high-value targets like El Mencho.
• Assessment of Strategy
  • While the Mexican government has historically criticized the "kingpin strategy" due to its propensity for violence, the elimination of such a high-value target was deemed unavoidable.
  • The successful raid demonstrates advanced capabilities by Mexican forces, impressing observers across the political spectrum.

Economic and Event-Based Implications

• Economic Significance
  • Jalisco state is a critical business and investment hub; instability there poses significant economic risks.
• World Cup Vulnerability
  • Mexico, the U.S., and Canada are set to co-host the World Cup in four months.
  • At least one match is scheduled for Guadalajara, the capital of Jalisco, directly linking cartel stability to the event's success.
  • A surge in violence could damage Mexico's reputation and impact the tournament, drawing global scrutiny.