Interview
How “El Mencho’s” death could reshape Mexico’s largest cartel | The Economist
- Violence is expected to persist or escalate due to high probabilities of cartel fragmentation and internecine conflict triggered by the removal of leadership.
- The organization is highly susceptible to fragmentation in the absence of a succession plan or if designated successors are killed.
- Security forces will maintain heightened alertness over the coming months to detect and respond to immediate outbreaks of conflict.
- The current sharp spike in violence may represent only a temporary lull of a few weeks to several months while criminal groups regroup, arm themselves, and form new alliances.
- There is a significant risk that failing to immediately suppress the current instability could evolve into an epidemic of violence affecting Mexico.
- The administration faces intense pressure from Donald Trump to address criminal groups, including threats of unilateral American strikes if actions are not taken.
- The operation was potentially driven by the target's high value to American interests and a serious commitment from Claudia Schoenbaum to resolve the security crisis.
- Violent fallout is considered very likely to impact Mexico across multiple sectors, with the World Cup serving as a critical focal point for the world's scrutiny between now and the event.