Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
How the Past and Present Will Shape Russia's Future | Global Conference 2025
Milken InstituteJulia Ioffe, Eric Green, Pavel Khodorkovsky, Maria Snegovaya, Daniel Treisman, Leonid Volkov
- Panelists project a political transition occurring within a timeframe of five to fifteen years, with specific predictions of a post-Putin return to democracy in five to seven years or a more extended timeline of up to twenty years until the regime's end.
- Fundamental regime changes and the departure of Putin are anticipated to occur when he leaves power, potentially in another 10 to 15 years due to his age, or sooner if a "crisis management model" triggers a fatal crisis within five to seven years.
- Economic conditions are expected to shift from a current "sugar rush" of resilience and military-led growth to a "hangover" of classic stagflation (inflation and stagnation) over the next few years, driven by an inability to rapidly democratize or integrate with the West.
- The effectiveness of Western sanctions is viewed as limited by Russia's pivot to Ruble-based trade (over 50%) and integration with China, where favorable bilateral relations rose from 34 to 82 percent, though some speakers argue a swift, early shock could have altered outcomes.
- Post-Putin Russia is forecasted to avoid a rapid democratic evolution, likely settling into a "plurality of leadership" or a "more moderately autocratic" model, with a political landscape characterized by dynamic turmoil, a "royal battle," and potential turbulence rather than a stable vertical hierarchy.
- Internal resistance remains statistically non-existent in visibility but active among millions of citizens who will become visible only if a space for political competition is created, with democratization relying on domestic actors rather than external soft power.
- The war is expected to continue until Putin departs, with no end in sight while the current regime holds power, though a temporary ceasefire may occur if combatants are exhausted, potentially leading to a "confrontation" rather than a negotiated settlement.
- Societal and institutional impacts include a demodernization trend with a projected fall in the highly educated population, a prevailing "fortress Russia" elite mindset, and a shift in public morale that may sustain for another one to two years despite exhaustion by late 2024.
- International alignment is predicted to strengthen towards China, with Russia's ability to evade Western "quarantine" facilitated by this partnership, while the US may face global recession risks from its economic warfare that indirectly harms the Russian economy.
- Political succession is described as unpredictable with no single figure guaranteed to emerge over the next 10 to 15 years, though some experts suggest a successor might fail to surpass the current regime or that the system requires a shift from presidential to parliamentary models to resist authoritarianism.