How to rig an election

Global Election Landscape (2024)

• 2024 is the largest election year in history, with over half the global population in nations holding polls.
• The Economist estimates that while over 17 elections are scheduled for 2024, more than one-third will not be fully free and fair.
• Authoritarian regimes are utilizing a "playbook" of rigged elections to consolidate power while simultaneously repressing and conning citizens.

Legal Weaponization (Lawfare)

• Autocrats increasingly weaponize the legal system to hamstring opposition parties long before polling day, including criminalizing public dissent.
• In Zimbabwe, a 2023 law criminalizes acts damaging "sovereignty and national interest," risking up to 20 years in prison for critics like Fadzai Mahere.
• Regimes often secure control of courts and alter constitutions to immunize leaders; for example, Rwanda's Paul Kagame amended his constitution to extend his term by another 10 years.
• Opposition candidates are frequently barred from ballots through legal maneuvers that make party registration or candidacy practically impossible.

Disinformation and Digital Authoritarianism

• Digital authoritarianism has reversed earlier hopes that online tools would undermine repression, with regimes now dominating digital spaces.
• Freedom House reported that at least 47 governments covertly manipulated online discussions in 2023, double the figure from a decade prior.
• Techniques include AI-generated propaganda, such as fake English-language news anchors in Venezuela and pro-regime messages in Burkina Faso.
• Media domination is achieved by turning public broadcasters into propaganda outlets and muzzling dissenting voices.

Electoral Manipulation Tactics

• Gerrymandering: Electoral boundaries are manipulated in countries like Zimbabwe, El Salvador, and Hungary to dilute opposition voting power.
• Voter Suppression: Tactics include disrupting voter registration in opposition strongholds (e.g., Zimbabwe's 2023 urban areas), removing names from rolls, and distributing flyers discouraging voting.
• Vote Buying: Financial bribery remains common; nearly 20% of African respondents reported being offered gifts for votes, compared to 8% in Latin America and nearly one-third in Bulgaria, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Kenya.
• Ballot Stuffing: While crude ballot stuffing is often avoided due to high visibility risks (as seen in Kenya's 2007 violence), subtler fraud is preferred to avoid triggering international outrage or domestic tragedy.

Geopolitical Context and Implications

• Western governments have historically granted free passes to leaders of resource-rich or strategically important nations, reducing criticism of manipulated elections.
• Leaders of manipulated states often leverage post-colonial narratives to deflect Western criticism regarding democratic standards.
• "Phony democracies" are noted to last longer than pure dictatorships because autocrats gut checking institutions rather than abolishing them entirely.