Interview
How to rig an election
- Over one-third of the 17 elections scheduled for 2024 are estimated to be neither fully free nor fair, as autocratic regimes plan to utilize rigged elections and constitutional changes to consolidate power for the long term.
- Regimes intend to dominate public discourse by converting public broadcasters into propaganda tools, silencing dissenting media, and increasing the number of covert online manipulation commentators to at least 47 governments by 2023.
- Authoritarian leaders plan to employ lawfare to weaken opposition, including tactics such as constitutional amendments that could extend rule for up to 10 years and legal penalties carrying sentences of up to 20 years for critics.
- Strategies to hobble opposition include gerrymandering, vote buying that creates a persistent cycle of corruption, and specific tactics like ballot stuffing or manipulating infrastructure, though leaders may prefer subtle manipulation to avoid triggering violence or international scrutiny.
- The proliferation of disinformation campaigns is expected to continue unless serious safeguards and media literacy are established, with AI technology potentially being leveraged to amplify propaganda for specific regimes.
- Political leaders in Africa may increasingly reject Western democratic standards by citing colonial history, while the international community may grant strategic impunity to leaders of key nations regarding manipulated elections.
- Defending independent institutions such as courts, media, and election commissions is identified as a primary defense for democracy, with expectations that continued public resistance offers potential for improved outcomes in specific contexts like Zimbabwe.