How Trump is still damaging American politics

Election Integrity and Political Violence

• Following the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump publicly rejected the results, calling the outcome a "fraud" and a "scam of the century," despite losing the election to Joe Biden.
• Trump's rhetoric contributed to a violent attack on the U.S. Capitol, resulting in the deaths of several individuals and leaving approximately 40% of Americans skeptical of Biden's legitimacy.
• A survey indicates that 67% of Americans believe the nation's democracy is at risk of collapse, while 71% of 2020 Trump voters anticipate a decline in democracy within a generation.
• Election officials have faced severe harassment, including death threats and sexualized threats of execution, with some officials forced to resign due to the intensity of the abuse.
• Specific targets included Fulton County elections chief Richard Barron, who was publicly shamed by Trump on a large screen at a rally and subsequently received death threats targeting his children.
• Joe Biden explicitly warned in September 2022 that the nation faces an existential threat from "anti-democratic forces" and "Trumpism," characterizing the movement as extremism comparable to threats against the republic's survival.

Legislative Restriction on Voting and Election Laws

• In 2021, state legislators proposed 566 voting restriction bills, 93% of which were introduced by Republicans, with 52 of these enacted across 25 states.
• Of the enacted 52 laws, 45 were proposed by Republicans, often justified by claims of widespread voter fraud despite a lack of evidence.
• In 2022, six states (Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, and Oklahoma) passed nine specific laws criminalizing election interference, including penalizing officials who encourage eligible voters to use mail-in ballots.
• Current restrictive measures include narrowing mail-in ballot eligibility, limiting drop box usage, shortening submission windows, and enforcing strict voter ID requirements.
• Critics argue these restrictions disproportionately disadvantage communities of color and core Democratic voters, potentially leading to effective disenfranchisement.

Shift in Republican Party Dynamics and Candidacy

• The "Big Lie" regarding the 2020 election has created a polarizing dynamic where Republicans who reject the narrative of a stolen election face censure, expulsion, or defeat in primaries.
• Former Senator Mitt Romney was booed by supporters for rejecting election denialism, signaling a shift where truth-tellers are viewed as traitors within the party.
• Donald Trump endorsed over 200 candidates for the 2022 midterms, including those in key state executive offices responsible for election certification.
• Four of six House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021 lost their subsequent primaries to Trump loyalists, illustrating the pressure to conform to the party's new stance.
• A concerted effort by Trump allies, including Steve Bannon, aims to recruit election deniers into local government roles such as school boards and election clerks to "take over" election certification processes.
• Twenty-eight Trump-backed candidates are running for high-ranking state positions, including governor and secretary of state, with some explicitly promising to interfere in future election outcomes to prevent perceived fraud.

Future Risks and Systemic Vulnerabilities

• The 2024 presidential election is viewed by experts as the "ultimate challenge" to American democracy due to the increased risk of political violence and the rise of militia groups.
• There is a growing concern that state-level officials who won on platforms of election interference may refuse to certify votes or utilize their powers to manipulate results.
• Experts warn that a scenario involving congressional refusal to certify election results could lead to a breakdown of the federal system.
• Voter turnout has historically trended upward despite previous restrictions, though the specific impact of the 2021–2022 wave of new laws on the 2022 midterms remains undetermined.
• The administration of elections remains a state-level process, with final certification power resting with chief election officials, creating vulnerabilities that can be exploited by state-level partisan actors.