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How Trump is still damaging American politics
- The 2024 presidential elections are projected to be the most significant challenge to American democracy, driven by a polarized environment where 71% of 2020 Trump voters anticipate a decline in democratic standards within a generation.
- A substantial increase in restrictive voting legislation occurred in 2021, with 566 bills proposed and 52 enacted across 25 states, 45 of which were Republican-led measures targeting mail-in ballots, drop boxes, submission windows, and voter IDs.
- In 2022, six states—Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, and Oklahoma—passed nine election interference laws, some criminalizing election officials for encouraging mail-in voting, with specific efforts in Georgia and Texas aimed at disenfranchising communities of color and Democratic voters.
- Political violence is expected to rise due to a Republican belief that the system is rigged and threats made against specific individuals, including families of election officials, by political figures at rallies.
- The Republican Party is undergoing a radicalization where dissenters regarding the 2020 election narrative are being expelled, while Trump and allies, including Steve Bannon, are recruiting local officials to interfere with vote certification.
- Strategic plans involve seizing control of school boards, precinct committees, and election offices, with 28 Trump-backed candidates running for state positions responsible for certification and over 200 candidates endorsed for federal and state executive roles.
- Election outcomes are threatened by candidates running on platforms to interfere in elections to achieve desired results, with a risk that Congress could refuse to certify votes, potentially causing a systemic breakdown or constitutional crisis.
- The long-term recovery of the body politic and trust in the system is projected to take a significant amount of time, though the severity of the threat may motivate public action to address the crisis.