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How will businesses use the metaverse?
Definition and Core Concept
- The metaverse is defined as a persistent, 3D virtual plane that mirrors the real world with infinite memory and history, allowing simultaneous global interaction.
- While often associated with gaming or VR headsets, the term encompasses a decentralized future internet state and parallel existence where users can perform actions impossible in the physical realm.
- The concept originated in Neal Stephenson's 1992 novel Snow Crash but evolved from 1970s gaming software focused on real-time text collaboration.
- Matthew Ball characterizes the metaverse for big tech as a 3D simulacra of Earth, whereas others view it as a decentralized evolution of the current web.
Technological Foundations and Production
- Industrial Light & Magic (ILM) developed "Stagecraft," an end-to-end virtual production toolkit using LED walls to display real-time computer-generated worlds directly on set.
- ILM's Stagecraft technology reduces post-production workload by allowing approximately 50% of filmed shots to be used in the final show without digital touch-ups.
- ILM transitioned from using Unreal Engine to developing its own real-time cinematic render engine, Helios.
- The technology was first utilized for Jon Favreau's The Mandalorian to achieve movie-level visuals in a television production format.
- The video game industry has driven 3D graphics maturation, growing from a $13 billion market in 1997 to $214 billion in 2021.
- Graphics software has advanced to the point where it can simulate complex world rules, logic, and physics for film and television.
Corporate Investment and Market Growth
- Facebook rebranded to "Meta" in 2022, signaling a strategic pivot toward metaverse development.
- Meta invested $10 billion in metaverse-related technologies in 2021.
- Microsoft acquired gaming giant Activision Blizzard for $69 billion in January 2022 to solidify its position in the emerging market.
- Private equity, venture capital, and corporations invested over $120 billion in the metaverse in the first five months of 2022, more than double the 2021 total.
- NVIDIA's market value surged from under $18 billion in January 2016 to over $454 billion in July 2022, with revenue growing nearly 536%.
- NVIDIA is building "Earth 2," a supercomputer utilizing digital twin technology to simulate global weather and predict climate changes decades in advance.
- Intel estimates that a nearly thousand-factor improvement in average computing power is required to support the metaverse at scale.
Entrepreneurial Opportunities and Platforms
- Roblox serves as a primary metaverse example, launching in 2006 with 58.5 million daily active users in July 2022 and a valuation of $25 billion.
- Over 11.5 million people currently develop games for Roblox, utilizing free platform tools to create monetizable experiences.
- Developers Max Entwistle and Simon Burgess earned approximately $1 million annually from their game Sharkbite, which has been played over 100 million times.
- The platform's currency, Robux, facilitates real-money transactions, enabling economic activity for creators outside traditional tech hubs.
- Roblox has achieved mainstream adoption among younger generations, with three out of four Americans aged 9–12 and half of 10-year-olds in Britain using the platform.
- Roblox defines itself as a technology platform for creating and sharing imaginative experiences rather than a gaming company.
Industrial and Public Sector Applications
- Lockheed Martin utilizes the "Cognitive Mission Manager" (CMM) on digital twin technology to predict wildfire behavior and optimize fire suppression strategies.
- NVIDIA's Omniverse platform enables the creation of "digital twins," precise virtual replicas of physical environments used for planning and operations.
- Manufacturing giants including Amazon, Siemens, and BMW use digital twins to simulate factory processes, enhancing efficiency, safety, and productivity.
- Military applications of augmented reality (AR) include Microsoft's $22 billion contract to supply US troops with combat goggles capable of night vision and through-smoke imaging.
- Johns Hopkins University employs AR-guided computer systems for spinal surgery, achieving a 98% accuracy rate in implant placement across approximately 100 cases.
- The technology allows for training robots and performing surgical procedures in virtual environments before physical deployment.
Standards, Protocols, and Future Challenges
- A critical barrier to the metaverse's evolution is the lack of a universal standard for connecting disparate virtual worlds, similar to the HTML protocol for the web.
- Pixar developed Universal Scene Description (USD) in 2016 as open-source software to provide a common language for describing 3D environments.
- USD is currently being positioned by the industry as the potential "HTML of 3D" to facilitate interoperability and secure information sharing between virtual worlds.
- The industry is currently in the early stages of establishing the hierarchies and structures required for seamless travel between virtual worlds.
- Experts note that the metaverse is likely to replicate real-world pitfalls, including societal and behavioral challenges.
- Predictions suggest that while specific market opportunities are difficult to forecast, the technology will inevitably drive new behaviors and unlock unforeseen markets.