Panel
Immigration and the California Economy
Milken InstituteAndrea Bernstein, Gray Davis, Maria Elena Durazo, Iliana Perez, Perry Wong, Caroline Walker, Krishna Thangavelu
- California's trade relationship with Mexico is projected to potentially shift from second to first trading partner status by the time Gray Davis left office, though current relations under the Trump administration are characterized as fragile and tense.
- Upcoming NAFTA negotiations, expected to commence within 10 days, will focus on technical details such as rules of origin, with potential negotiations for a better deal with Canada and Mexico subject to mutual agreement.
- Redefining trade agreements to emphasize country-of-origin content over North American content poses significant operational challenges for major corporations including Apple, GM, and Ford.
- Restricting foreign-born workers in STEM sectors is predicted to negatively impact state and US GDP, available job counts, and wage levels.
- Failure to pass an immigration reform package is expected to trigger rolling DACA renewals expirations, preventing individuals in their 20s and 30s from remaining at their current firms.
- An estimated 20,000 undocumented youth are anticipated to lose renewal opportunities within a one-month window, facing immediate deportation risks if the DREAM Act does not pass by March.
- If the DREAM Act fails, hundreds of thousands of DACA recipients may be forced to immediately seek alternative livelihoods or business ownership strategies due to lost work authorization.
- Without intervention from business leaders to challenge current immigration policies, the US economy is predicted to suffer tremendous losses.
- Temporary Protected Status (TPS) is set to be revoked for Nicaragua starting next year, affecting between 3,000 and 5,000 individuals, while Haiti and Central American nations face continued threats.
- Sanctuary state bills passed by the legislature and governor are expected to prevent police from inquiring about immigration status, a measure backed by police chiefs as necessary for crime-solving cooperation.
- The US Congress is expected to determine the status and work authorization of DACA recipients between the time of the statements and March 1st.
- If the administration successfully returns 5 million jobs to the US, the tight labor market will raise critical questions regarding the availability of a sufficient workforce.
- By 2030, the aging out of the Baby Boomer generation is projected to create a severe workforce shortage that the government must address.
- Artificial intelligence is identified as a potential solution to extreme workforce shortages, mirroring strategies currently employed by the Japanese economy.