Immigration in Europe: Balancing Politics, Security and Compassion

Panel Composition and Context

• The session addressed the European immigration crisis, framed as an acute issue since the 2015 refugee surge.
• Percy Barnevik (business leader, former head of ABB/AstraZeneca): Advocates for attacking migration at the source in countries of origin.
• Begum Doğan (Chairwoman, largest Turkish media group): Calls for Europe to exit "panic mode" and emphasizes empathy, noting Turkey hosts 3 million refugees.
• Sir Paul Collier (Oxford Professor): Focuses on redefining the "duty of rescue" to prioritize economic autonomy over humanitarian camps.
• Dominic Hangartner (LSE Professor, Immigration Policy Lab): Analyzes integration failures in Europe and the political impact of current asylum systems.

Key Arguments on Crisis Management and Strategy

• Begum Doğan:
  • Europe (500 million people) can absorb a few million refugees without societal collapse; fear-based policy must be abandoned.
  • Turkey hosts 3 million refugees, with only 250,000 in camps; the remainder integrate into local communities, where 90,000 refugees may outnumber 70,000 locals in specific villages.
  • Media played a pivotal role via the image of Aylan Kurdi, which shifted global policy and public sentiment.
  • In Turkey, 2,000 businesses were established by Syrians in the last two years, signaling potential economic contribution.
  • Doğan predicts a future wave of "climate refugees" within the next five to seven years.
• Sir Paul Collier:
  • Distinguishes refugees (fleeing fear) from migrants (seeking opportunity), noting 90% of global refugees bypass the UNHCR system to live in towns rather than camps.
  • The "Jordan Model" involves industrial zones in Jordan offering work permits to refugees and locals (70/30 split) in exchange for EU market access.
  • The World Bank approved a historic $300 million loan for Jordan to create jobs for refugees, ending a 16-year hiatus on such lending.
  • Top refugee haven countries are primarily emigration nations (e.g., Pakistan), not traditional Western donors; the majority of refugees are in ten "haven" countries.
  • The global system misdiagnoses refugee needs by prioritizing food/shelter over the restoration of autonomy and employment.
• Percy Barnevik:
  • Integration failures are evident in Sweden, where 25% unemployment among refugees contrasts with 5% general unemployment.
  • Solving the crisis in the country of origin (e.g., Afghanistan, Somalia) costs 10% of the cost of integrating them in Europe.
  • Barnevik's private initiatives have lifted 50 million people out of poverty and created 10 million jobs, primarily bypassing corrupt governments.
  • He secured $45 million annually from Sweden to lift 3.5 million people out of poverty in Afghanistan over five years.
  • Barnevik previously attempted a $35 million deal with Italy (Berlusconi era) to create 150,000 jobs in Tunisia to stop migration, though it failed due to political turnover.
• Dominic Hangartner:
  • Asylum procedures in Europe (e.g., Switzerland) average 1–2 years for positive claims, causing skill atrophy and a 4–5% drop in employment rates for every year of delay.
  • Early intervention (language training, psychological support) within the first year of arrival yields higher returns than later interventions.
  • Public opinion shifts toward accepting refugees if a burden-sharing system based on GDP and population (Aristotelian proportional equality) is implemented.
  • Current anti-immigrant sentiment is driven less by numbers (1.3 million vs. 500 million) and more by the perception of an uncontrolled system.

Policy Discussions and Future Outlook

• EU-Turkey Deal Status:
  • Turkey has invested $16 billion in refugees; Europe has not fully fulfilled financial or visa-related promises.
  • Tensions remain high; Barnevik predicts Erdogan may open borders to Greece within six months due to unfulfilled EU commitments.
  • Migration flows have dropped from 1.3 million to approx. 150,000 annually, largely due to Turkey's border controls, but the route has shifted to Libya/Land routes.
  • Doğan notes that even if borders open, many refugees do not wish to remain in Greece due to lack of jobs.
• Critique of Current European Phases:
  • Collier identifies three phases: "Heartless Head" (2011–2014, neglect by Europe), "Headless Heart" (2015–present, chaotic opening of doors), and a proposed return to "Heartless Head" (repatriation).
  • The "Headless Heart" phase resulted in the migration of the elite: <5% of Syrians are in Europe, but 33–50% of educated Syrians are now in Europe, depriving Syria of its reconstruction workforce.
• Business and CSR Role:
  • Companies should redefine CSR not as aid (blankets) but by operating in source regions to bring productivity and jobs.
  • The Jordan agreement is being replicated in Ethiopia and Kenya.
  • Businesses are urged to shift production to industrial zones in haven countries to bypass trade barriers.

Specific Risks and Challenges

• Integration: Real integration takes generations, particularly for populations from conservative or Muslim-majority regions; rapid settlement in specific regions causes social discomfort.
• Demographics: Europe fears cumulative pressure similar to the US-Mexico border; a trickle of 1.3 million per year could become unsustainable if repeated.
• Political Backlash: The rise of populism (e.g., Donald Trump) is attributed to cultural anxiety over changing demographics rather than solely economic factors.
• Corruption: Barnevik refuses to work with corrupt governments, opting for direct private projects; he reports 95% of his work bypasses state structures.
• Border Control: Europe likely overestimates its ability to control external borders and underestimates the generational timeline required for integration.

Questions from the Floor

• A question regarding investment security in African countries highlighted fears of local government corruption; Barnevik responded that private sector work bypasses government entirely.
• Verification of panelist experience showed 50% had visited Syrian refugee camps in the last six months.
• Discussion on the potential for US involvement in poverty alleviation in Afghanistan, citing historical support from the Pentagon.