Conference Presentation, Fireside Chat, Panel
Immigration in Europe: Balancing Politics, Security and Compassion
Milken InstituteDavid Goodhart, Percy Barnevik, Sir Paul Collier, Begüm Doğan Faralyali, Dominik Hangartner
- Future challenges are anticipated to intensify due to increased global interconnectedness, the emergence of climate refugees within the next five to seven years, and the cumulative impact of high refugee numbers over successive years.
- Economic projections suggest that climate refugees may appear soon, while current costs for solving refugee issues in home countries are estimated at 10% of the cost of handling them in European nations.
- Specific financial and operational commitments include a projected $45 million annual investment over five years to lift 3.5 million people out of poverty in Afghanistan, 1.3 million potential cumulative new refugees if current trends continue, and a $16 billion expenditure by Turkey on refugees without sufficient EU contributions.
- Strategic initiatives involve issuing 200,000 work permits in Jordan, granting European market access for Jordan over 10 years, securing a World Bank loan for refugees for the first time in 16 years, and shifting international production to industrial zones in haven countries.
- Policy reforms emphasize reducing legal limbo to prevent a 4-5 percentage point annual drop in refugee employment rates, conducting early assessments within the first year of arrival for maximum economic payoff, and redesigning asylum systems to share burdens based on capacity.
- Demographic shifts forecast Africa's population to increase by a billion people over the next 25 years, with the expectation that receiving nations must address birth rates and living standards to solve issues at the source.
- Political and social risks include potential instability in Europe if 1.3 million refugees continue arriving annually, discomfort among middle-lower income classes in America due to stagnant purchasing power and demographic changes where White Americans comprise roughly 60% of the population.
- Diplomatic tensions and delays involve a visa issue for Turkey stuck in limbo with no clear timeline for financial aid payments, a prediction that Turkey may consider a referendum on joining Europe due to cooling relations, and a warning that Erdogan may emulate Putin by opening borders to Greece within six months.
- Operational realities note that 90% of global refugees bypass UNHCR camps to live in towns, the majority reside in ten haven countries often of emigration, and 2,000 Syrian businesses in Turkey are expected to create employment despite limited initial scale.
- Integration processes are described as generational, taking several generations to fully realize, while 2,000 businesses established by Syrians are expected to eventually create employment though likely not significantly at the outset.
- Historical phases of the refugee response are categorized as "heartless head" (2011-2015), "headless heart" (2015 onwards), and a predicted third phase of "heartless head" involving the return of refugees to Turkey.
- Corporate and institutional transformations anticipate businesses redefining their core job in regions like Jordan rather than traditional CSR, the UNHCR potentially converting into an economic agency, and international companies utilizing the "duty of rescue" model.
- Implementation constraints include the expectation that the World Bank loan is the first in 16 years, the "most implausible part" of the Jordan plan being the 10-year EU market access, and the inability to work with corrupt governments in poverty alleviation efforts.
- Migration patterns are expected to shift such that walking from Greece to northern Europe in 2017 is unlikely compared to 2015, with many refugees returning to Turkey in Lesbos due to an inability to find jobs or start a life in Greece.
- Humanitarian values and societal attitudes are predicted to require empathy and compassion, with research expected to confirm that helping those in need remains a top value for Turkish citizens despite rising criticism of Europe.