Imperial Gamble: Putin, Ukraine, and the New Cold War

Upcoming Institute Events:

• Inaugural Public Health Summit: Scheduled for March 1–2 in Washington, D.C., focusing on wellness and disease prevention; invitation-only.
• 19th Annual Global Conference: Held May 1–4 at the Beverly Hilton; capacity is 3,500 people.
  • Features approximately 700 speakers across 140 public panels and 50–60 private panels.
  • Covers 11 distinct themes and topics.

Key Speaker Introductions:

• Moderator: Gerald Greene, President and CEO of the Pacific Council on International Policy (Los Angeles); former RAND Corporation director and University of Chicago trustee.
• Guest: Marvin Kalb, fellow at the Brookings Institution and iconic journalist with 30 years of experience at CBS and NBC; author of Imperial Gamble.

Analysis of Vladimir Putin:

• Background and Psychology:
  • Product of Soviet education and KGB training; views the Soviet Union's 1991 disintegration as the "great calamity of the 20th century."
  • Operates under a worldview of Russia as a "besieged country" facing a Western crusade to hem them in.
  • Possesses 16 years of leadership experience; believes "Russia is Putin, Putin is Russia."
  • Dismisses Western democratic norms; holds "utter contempt" for President Obama and "very little respect" for the West.
  • Believes he represents the best interests of Russia and intends to remain in power until death or national upheaval.
• Policy and Strategic Moves:
  • Syria Intervention: Described by Kalb as a "stupidest blunder" likely to backfire by radicalizing Sunni Muslims within Russia and the region.
    • 2,500 Sunni Russians from Dagestan and 7,000 from Central Asia are fighting in Syria, potentially returning with terrorist skills.
  • Ukraine and Crimea:
    • Views Ukraine not as an independent nation but as historically inseparable from the Russian Empire (Kievan Rus').
    • Believes the 1954 transfer of Crimea to Ukraine by Khrushchev was a Soviet administrative error, not a sovereign boundary change.
    • Operates on the premise that Russia has a legitimate sphere of influence in Eastern Europe.

Geopolitical Assessment:

• U.S. Policy Failures:
  • The U.S. and Western leadership failed to understand Russia after the Cold War, treating it as a problem to be ignored rather than engaged.
  • NATO expansion toward the Russian border (mid-1990s) is viewed as a strategic error that fueled Russian resentment and Putin's conspiracy theories.
  • American "victory" in the Cold War was ungraceful; the U.S. failed to treat Russia with the respect accorded to Japan post-WWII.
• Economic Vulnerabilities:
  • The Russian economy is "staggering" due to low oil prices; Putin masks the severity of the situation.
  • Signs of unrest include recent strikes (e.g., drivers in the Moscow region).
  • Kalb warns that a successor to Putin could be "worse" and more dangerous, particularly regarding the use of nuclear weapons if the regime collapses into chaos.
• Alliance Dynamics:
  • NATO: European members voice tough rhetoric against Russia but rely on U.S. military leadership; Kalb fears NATO could disintegrate if the U.S. does not commit to defense obligations (e.g., Article 5 in the Baltics).
  • Russia-China Relations: characterized by mutual distrust; China seeks economic leverage in Siberia and Central Asia, while Putin fears Chinese political encroachment despite gas deals.
  • Israel-Russia Relations: Exists via a tacit deal allowing Russian operations in Syria provided they do not threaten Israeli borders; includes direct communication channels between Netanyahu and Putin to manage "deconfliction."

Journalism Assessment:

• Decline of Expertise: The news industry has shifted from deep subject-matter expertise to technical speed and "live" broadcasting capabilities; no equivalent to Edward R. Murrow exists today.
• Political Coverage:
  • Media has "bent over backwards" to accommodate presidential candidates (e.g., Donald Trump), accepting telephone interviews or allowing candidates to dominate airtime without accountability.
  • Lack of traditional journalistic toughness (e.g., interruption, fact-checking) weakens the democracy-journalism symbiosis.
• Consequence: A weakened press leads to a weakened democracy; the "virile journalism" required for a healthy democracy is currently absent.

Demographics and Society:

• Population Health:
  • Russian men have an average life expectancy in their late 50s; women in their mid-60s.
  • Primary drivers of low life expectancy: severe alcoholism, poor diet (high starch), smoking, and inadequate medical facilities outside Moscow/St. Petersburg (e.g., patients must provide their own linens).
• Information Control:
  • State-controlled Russian television is highly effective, with 90–97% of viewers accepting the state narrative as truth.
  • Russian media coverage of Ukraine and Syria mirrors ISIS rhetoric, framing Russia as the savior against Western imperialism.

Recommendations for Understanding Russia:

• Primary Text: Imperial Gamble by Marvin Kalb.
• Historical/Literary Works:
  • War and Peace by Tolstoy (for military and aristocratic mindset).
  • Works by Bernard Peirce and Vernadsky.
  • Literature by Dostoevsky, Turgenev, and Gogol to understand the national soul.
• Core Insight: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is rooted in the competing narratives of "Kievan Rus'" as either a shared Russian origin or the exclusive Ukrainian birthright.

Future Outlook:

• Democracy is unlikely to take root in Russia soon; the population associates the 1990s with chaos rather than freedom.
• U.S. policy must move beyond ideology to focus on specific, defensible national security interests to avoid "playing games" with Russia.
• A realistic path to stability requires new political leadership in both Russia and Ukraine willing to engage with historical reality rather than nationalist fantasy.