Conference Presentation, Fireside Chat
Imperial Gamble: Putin, Ukraine, and the New Cold War
- The Institute's inaugural public health summit is scheduled for March 1st and 2nd in Washington.
- The 19th annual global conference is set to occur from May 1st to 4th at the Beverly Hilton, with expectations to reach capacity with 3,500 attendees and feature approximately 700 speakers across 140 public panels plus 50 to 60 private panels.
- Vladimir Putin is predicted to remain in office until his death or a major national upheaval, maintaining a belief that he represents Russia's best interests and that the world poses a threat.
- Russian domestic risks include a potential second Chechen war emerging within the next month to one year, alongside strikes that are viewed as the precursor to a larger event.
- Security risks involve a potential successor to Putin, who might be worse, utilizing unresolved situations in Ukraine and Syria to move against the Baltic states, potentially triggering NATO Article 5.
- There is a forecast that 9,500 Sunni Muslims (2,500 Russian and 7,000 Central Asian) returning from Syria may bring back terrorist skills, leading to radicalization within Russia.
- Russia's military is assessed as significantly stronger than at any point in the last 25 years, though the economy is expected to remain staggering and weaker than anticipated if oil prices stay at record lows.
- The relationship between the US and NATO faces a high risk of disintegration or withering away within one, two, or five years if the United States fails to provide clear leadership and define its national security interests.
- In the absence of US leadership, NATO is predicted to become a "useless first Cold War organization," while current confidence in the alliance's ability to respond to Russian control of Crimea is low.
- A realistic deal between Ukraine and Russia is not anticipated at this time due to a lack of preparedness by leaders in either nation to respect the other.
- The US mood to fulfill obligations to fight in Estonia or Latvia is currently in doubt, and the Chinese are expected to pursue their objectives regardless of deals made with Putin.
- The relationship between Israel and Russia is considered fragile and could end instantly due to a lack of mutual trust.
- Russian democracy is not expected to develop in the near future, despite the population being educated, intelligent, and connected to new technology, which contradicts the "viral democracy" theory that relies on "virile journalism."
- US democracy faces a risk of weakening if journalism fails to be held accountable, if journalists accommodate candidates to the detriment of providing the full story, or if the public accepts lower standards of media coverage.
- If the United States does not clearly understand Russia, the country faces serious consequences as responsible actions may be misaligned with the reality of the situation.