Implications of an “Americas First” Foreign Policy

The "Donro Doctrine" Definition: The Trump administration has launched a 2026 foreign policy pivot in the Western Hemisphere, characterized as a neo-mercantilist revival of the Monroe Doctrine termed the "Donro Doctrine."

• This policy reverts to 19th-century statecraft, prioritizing the direct control of resources and potential territorial acquisition over the 20th-century focus on preventing ideological regimes.
• Unlike the traditional Monroe Doctrine which sought to exclude European colonialism, the Donro Doctrine explicitly embraces the right to exert force to consolidate U.S. dominance and control over regional assets.

Strategic Drivers and Motivation:

• Structural Factor: The administration views the current era of great power rivalry as a catalyst for the U.S. to consolidate its "backyard" while global instability rises, mirroring U.S. consolidation strategies during the World Wars and Cold War.
• Personal Factor: President Trump's personal focus is driven by a desire for tangible resource control and territorial expansion, including historical discussions regarding taking control of Panama, Canada, and Greenland.
• Security Perception: The administration prioritizes "tangible threats" to sovereignty, specifically linking drug trafficking and migration to the need for intervention in the Western Hemisphere.

Operational Implementation and Actions:

• Venezuela Intervention: The forced removal of Nicolás Maduro is framed not primarily as a democracy initiative, but as a strategic move to secure Venezuelan oil and open the industry to U.S. majors.
  • Trump's strategy involves cooperating with remnants of the Maduro government to ensure U.S. control over oil disposition rather than enforcing immediate regime change for governance reasons.
• Regional Diplomacy and Military Presence: The campaign utilizes a mix of diplomatic pressure on Colombia and Panama, economic support for Argentina's Milei government, and military partnerships with El Salvador's Bukele.
  • A specific tactical focus involves deploying the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard to intercept "shadow fleet" tankers and shoot up drug boats in the Caribbean to demonstrate hard power.
• Greenland Acquisition Efforts: The administration is actively pursuing the acquisition of Greenland to solidify hemispheric defense, citing historical precedents set by President Roosevelt prior to WWII.

Investor and Economic Implications:

• Energy Security Focus: The U.S. aims to transform regional energy powerhouses (Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela) into efficient producers by correcting "poor management," citing Guyana's success with American companies as the model.
• Tariff and Trade Restructuring: The first major commercial objective is the renegotiation of the USMCA with Mexico, aimed at modernizing partnerships from trade-focused to investment and equity-focused deals.
• China and Russia Containment: The strategy seeks to preempt Chinese and Russian acquisition of critical infrastructure (ports, grids, mineral rights) by ensuring the U.S. is the "partner of choice" for strategic assets in the region.

Geopolitical Risks and Global Consequences:

• Erosion of International Order: Hal Brands warns that U.S. coercion to redraw borders (e.g., in Greenland) creates a precedent for territorial disruption similar to actions by China and Russia, potentially returning the world to a pre-1945 norm where great powers freely violate sovereignty.
• Resource Deficit: The intense focus on the Western Hemisphere may drain U.S. military and diplomatic resources from other regions like the Middle East and Europe, potentially creating opportunities for adversaries in those areas.
• Nuclear Proliferation Risk: The "mega risk" for investors is a fundamental shift in U.S. leadership style; if the U.S. abandons its role as a stabilizer of the post-1945 order, global norms regarding nuclear proliferation and freedom of navigation may collapse.
• Market Volatility: Investors face heightened uncertainty regarding dollar dominance, global trade stability, and the potential for increased disorder on the high seas if U.S. policy moves from benign to coercive.

Future Outlook and Forward-Looking Statements:

• Regional Elections: Upcoming elections in Colombia and Brazil are critical; a center-right win could lead to the first ideological consolidation of the hemisphere around pro-U.S. partners.
• Long-Term Competition with China: While Moscow and Beijing acknowledge they cannot contest U.S. military power in the immediate hemisphere, Beijing is expected to play a "long game" by embedding influence through trade, technology, and low-profile internal security relationships.
• Policy Consistency: Mauricio Claver-Carone asserts that the administration will not engage in "nation-building" but rather in "practical, business-oriented partnerships" across the political spectrum, working with both left-leaning (Venezuela interim government, Mexico) and right-leaning regimes (Argentina, El Salvador).