Interview, Fireside Chat
Implications of an “Americas First” Foreign Policy
- Vulnerable anti-American regimes cooperating with China and Russia face projected increased pressure as the region enters a more intense phase of influence competition.
- Uncertainty exists regarding the collapse of the Cuban regime; while potentially leading to a refugee flood into the U.S., there is doubt about whether the administration desires such a collapse.
- Countries from Colombia to Mexico are expected to face urgency regarding narco-trafficking, with discussions ongoing about a potential U.S. military role in targeting cartels operating within Mexico.
- The U.S. is predicted to assert dominance in the Western Hemisphere by seizing shadow fleet tankers and destroying drug boats, with little capacity for Moscow or Beijing to contest this application of power.
- While the U.S. may dominate certain military and security areas, Beijing is forecast to play the long game by continuing to develop economic, political, and low-profile security relationships.
- Intensified U.S. military activity in the Western Hemisphere carries the risk of diverting resources from other regions, which could benefit Russia and China.
- A fundamental shift in U.S. foreign policy toward coercion or force is warned to potentially erode the post-1945 international order, encourage global proliferation of nuclear weapons, and cause a retreat of democratic values.
- Greater disorder on the high seas with implications for global trade and increased challenges to dollar dominance are anticipated if U.S. leadership changes fundamentally.
- The prospect of a fundamental shift in U.S. foreign policy is viewed as more real now than at any time in the last 70 years.
- In the political sphere, a dynamic social shift toward practical business relationships and secure living conditions is expected, potentially culminating in an ideological consolidation if center-right conservatives win elections in Colombia and Brazil.
- If new regional leaders prioritize partnerships with the U.S., a consolidation of partnerships is forecast, starting with a USMCA renegotiation in Mexico this year.
- It is anticipated that by the end of the current term, the United States will be unquestionably the partner of choice for Latin America, with relationships reconfigured around U.S. investment, equity, and strategic presence to exclude Chinese infrastructure acquisition.
- Energy is identified as the Achilles' heel of the Caribbean and a primary driver of migration in Central America, with high energy costs being a critical factor.
- The U.S. is expected to maintain its status as an energy powerhouse, consistent with previous leadership thinking, while Guyana is predicted to continue outproducing Venezuela in oil barrels per day with proper management.
- Countries including Venezuela, Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina are viewed as potential energy powerhouses capable of reaching U.S. scale, and American partnerships are expected to help nations move away from 20th-century nationalist strains.
- The outlook projects the 21st century as potentially another, if not the greatest, American century, provided the U.S. maintains strategic presence and economic leverage in the region.