Inside Iran: what's next?

Immediate Aftermath of Soleimani Assassination

• The U.S. drone strike that killed General Qassam Soleimani triggered a vow of vengeance by Iran's regime.
• Iran's retaliatory missile strikes on two Iraqi bases hosting U.S. troops were calibrated to avoid immediate escalation.
• While Iranian state media claimed the strikes caused "great damage," the missiles resulted in zero fatalities.

Ukrainian Jet Incident and Government Deception

• The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 people on board, including 82 Iranians.
• The regime initially attributed the crash to mechanical failure, refusing to admit the IRGC error until overwhelming international evidence forced a retraction.
• Three days post-crash, the IRGC admitted the mistake, and President Hassan Rouhani confirmed the incident on Twitter.

Domestic Unrest and Societal Fractures

• The crash has ignited widespread anti-government protests across Iran, including in Tehran and provincial cities.
• Recent demonstrations feature a broader demographic than the 2017 and 2019 uprisings, including significant middle-class participation driven by economic incompetence and brutality.
• High-profile public figures have turned against the regime, including:
  • Iran's only female Olympic medalist, Kimia Ali-Zadeh, who defected and accused the state of oppressing women.
  • Artists and athletes publicly refusing to participate under the Iranian flag.
  • Newspapers apologizing to readers for spreading government misinformation.
• Prominent members of Iran's parliament have resigned, and public calls for President Rouhani to resign have grown.
• Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains unrepentant despite the crisis.

Underlying Economic and Political Drivers

• Iran's economic collapse is attributed to both international sanctions and severe government incompetence, despite the country's educated workforce and trading history.
• The regime maintains control through force; historical data suggests regimes willing to shoot protesters can endure for extended periods.
• Internal power dynamics remain opaque due to a lack of transparency regarding factional struggles among the aging leadership.

Future Strategic Outlook and Regional Risks

• The regime shows no intention of conceding to protesters and will likely utilize all measures to maintain its grip on power.
• Iran will likely continue uranium enrichment and seek revenge for Soleimani's death.
• Potential consequences include:
  • Future covert assassinations by Iranian proxies targeting soft targets such as American businessmen or Jewish diplomats.
  • Risk of further U.S. military withdrawals if attacks on Americans escalate; a total U.S. pullout from Iraq could fragment the country into warring Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish factions, potentially allowing Islamic State to re-emerge.
• Soleimani's legacy as a figure who deepened Iran's status as a global pariah through military adventurism is expected to persist.